Causal-LLM: Towards Predictive and Interpretable Spatiotemporal Foundation Models

Abstract

Spatiotemporal forecasting has seen remarkable progress with the advent of deep learning, particularly with Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs). These models excel at answering the what question: predicting future numerical values with high accuracy. However, they fail to answer the crucial why question. In high-stakes domains such as meteorology, urban planning, and public health, this opacity creates a critical bottleneck for adoption. A model that predicts a severe pollution event without explaining its atmospheric drivers is a black box, limiting its trustworthiness and utility for decision-makers who need actionable, causal insights. To address this critical gap, I propose a long-term research project to develop Causal-LLM, a new class of foundation models for spatiotemporal data that are both predictively powerful and causally interpretable. My central thesis is that genuine interpretability cannot be an afterthought; it must be designed into the model