Markov Chain Truncation for Doubly-Intractable Inference
Abstract
Computing partition functions, the normalizing constants of probability distributions, is often hard. Variants of importance sampling give unbiased estimates of a normalizer Z, however, unbiased estimates of the reciprocal 1/Z are harder to obtain. Unbiased estimates of 1/Z allow Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling of “doubly-intractable” distributions, such as the parameter posterior for Markov Random Fields or Exponential Random Graphs. We demonstrate how to construct unbiased estimates for 1/Z given access to black-box importance sampling estimators for Z. We adapt recent work on random series truncation and Markov chain coupling, producing estimators with lower variance and a higher percentage of positive estimates than before. Our debiasing algorithms are simple to implement, and have some theoretical and empirical advantages over existing methods.
BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v54-wei17a,
title = {{Markov Chain Truncation for Doubly-Intractable Inference}},
author = {Wei, Colin and Murray, Iain},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics},
pages = {776--784},
year = {2017},
editor = {Singh, Aarti and Zhu, Jerry},
volume = {54},
series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research},
month = {20--22 Apr},
publisher = {PMLR},
pdf = {http://proceedings.mlr.press/v54/wei17a/wei17a.pdf},
url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v54/wei17a.html},
abstract = {Computing partition functions, the normalizing constants of probability distributions, is often hard. Variants of importance sampling give unbiased estimates of a normalizer Z, however, unbiased estimates of the reciprocal 1/Z are harder to obtain. Unbiased estimates of 1/Z allow Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling of “doubly-intractable” distributions, such as the parameter posterior for Markov Random Fields or Exponential Random Graphs. We demonstrate how to construct unbiased estimates for 1/Z given access to black-box importance sampling estimators for Z. We adapt recent work on random series truncation and Markov chain coupling, producing estimators with lower variance and a higher percentage of positive estimates than before. Our debiasing algorithms are simple to implement, and have some theoretical and empirical advantages over existing methods.}
}