A Potential Outcomes Calculus for Identifying Conditional Path-Specific Effects
Daniel Malinsky, Ilya Shpitser, Thomas Richardson
Abstract
The do-calculus is a well-known deductive system for deriving connections between interventional and observed distributions, and has been proven complete for a number of important identifiability problems in causal inference. Nevertheless, as it is currently defined, the do-calculus is inapplicable to causal problems that involve complex nested counterfactuals which cannot be expressed in terms of the "do" operator. Such problems include analyses of path-specific effects and dynamic treatment regimes. In this paper we present the potential outcome calculus (po-calculus), a natural generalization of do-calculus for arbitrary potential outcomes. We thereby provide a bridge between identification approaches which have their origins in artificial intelligence and statistics, respectively. We use po-calculus to give a complete identification algorithm for conditional path-specific effects with applications to problems in mediation analysis and algorithmic fairness.
BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v89-malinsky19b,
title = {A Potential Outcomes Calculus for Identifying Conditional Path-Specific Effects},
author = {Malinsky, Daniel and Shpitser, Ilya and Richardson, Thomas},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the Twenty-Second International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics},
pages = {3080--3088},
year = {2019},
editor = {Chaudhuri, Kamalika and Sugiyama, Masashi},
volume = {89},
series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research},
month = {16--18 Apr},
publisher = {PMLR},
pdf = {http://proceedings.mlr.press/v89/malinsky19b/malinsky19b.pdf},
url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v89/malinsky19b.html},
abstract = {The do-calculus is a well-known deductive system for deriving connections between interventional and observed distributions, and has been proven complete for a number of important identifiability problems in causal inference. Nevertheless, as it is currently defined, the do-calculus is inapplicable to causal problems that involve complex nested counterfactuals which cannot be expressed in terms of the "do" operator. Such problems include analyses of path-specific effects and dynamic treatment regimes. In this paper we present the potential outcome calculus (po-calculus), a natural generalization of do-calculus for arbitrary potential outcomes. We thereby provide a bridge between identification approaches which have their origins in artificial intelligence and statistics, respectively. We use po-calculus to give a complete identification algorithm for conditional path-specific effects with applications to problems in mediation analysis and algorithmic fairness.}
}