Probabilistic Modeling for Sequences of Sets in Continuous-Time
Yuxin Chang, Alex J Boyd, Padhraic Smyth
Abstract
Neural marked temporal point processes have been a valuable addition to the existing toolbox of statistical parametric models for continuous-time event data. These models are useful for sequences where each event is associated with a single item (a single type of event or a “mark”)—but such models are not suited for the practical situation where each event is associated with a set of items. In this work, we develop a general framework for modeling set-valued data in continuous-time, compatible with any intensity-based recurrent neural point process model. In addition, we develop inference methods that can use such models to answer probabilistic queries such as “the probability of item A being observed before item B,” conditioned on sequence history. Computing exact answers for such queries is generally intractable for neural models due to both the continuous-time nature of the problem setting and the combinatorially-large space of potential outcomes for each event. To address this, we develop a class of importance sampling methods for querying with set-based sequences and demonstrate orders-of-magnitude improvements in efficiency over direct sampling via systematic experiments with four real-world datasets. We also illustrate how to use this framework to perform model selection using likelihoods that do not involve one-step-ahead prediction.
BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v238-chang24a,
title = {Probabilistic Modeling for Sequences of Sets in Continuous-Time},
author = {Chang, Yuxin and J Boyd, Alex and Smyth, Padhraic},
booktitle = {Proceedings of The 27th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics},
pages = {4357--4365},
year = {2024},
editor = {Dasgupta, Sanjoy and Mandt, Stephan and Li, Yingzhen},
volume = {238},
series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research},
month = {02--04 May},
publisher = {PMLR},
pdf = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v238/chang24a/chang24a.pdf},
url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v238/chang24a.html},
abstract = {Neural marked temporal point processes have been a valuable addition to the existing toolbox of statistical parametric models for continuous-time event data. These models are useful for sequences where each event is associated with a single item (a single type of event or a “mark”)—but such models are not suited for the practical situation where each event is associated with a set of items. In this work, we develop a general framework for modeling set-valued data in continuous-time, compatible with any intensity-based recurrent neural point process model. In addition, we develop inference methods that can use such models to answer probabilistic queries such as “the probability of item A being observed before item B,” conditioned on sequence history. Computing exact answers for such queries is generally intractable for neural models due to both the continuous-time nature of the problem setting and the combinatorially-large space of potential outcomes for each event. To address this, we develop a class of importance sampling methods for querying with set-based sequences and demonstrate orders-of-magnitude improvements in efficiency over direct sampling via systematic experiments with four real-world datasets. We also illustrate how to use this framework to perform model selection using likelihoods that do not involve one-step-ahead prediction.}
}