ForecastICU: A Prognostic Decision Support System for Timely Prediction of Intensive Care Unit Admission
Jinsung Yoon, Ahmed Alaa, Scott Hu, Mihaela Schaar
Abstract
We develop ForecastICU: a prognostic decision support system that monitors hospitalized patients and prompts alarms for intensive care unit (ICU) admissions. ForecastICU is first trained in an offline stage by constructing a Bayesian belief system that corresponds to its belief about how trajectories of physiological data streams of the patient map to a clinical status. After that, ForecastICU monitors a new patient in real-time by observing her physiological data stream, updating its belief about her status over time, and prompting an alarm whenever its belief process hits a predefined threshold (confidence). Using a real-world dataset obtained from UCLA Ronald Reagan Medical Center, we show that ForecastICU can predict ICU admissions 9 hours before a physician’s decision (for a sensitivity of 40% and a precision of 50%). Also, ForecastICU performs consistently better than other state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms in terms of sensitivity, precision, and timeliness: it can predict ICU admissions 3 hours earlier, and offers a 7.8% gain in sensitivity and a 5.1% gain in precision compared to the best state-of-the-art algorithm. Moreover, ForecastICU offers an area under curve (AUC) gain of 22.3% compared to the Rothman index, which is the currently deployed technology in most hospital wards.
BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v48-yoon16,
title = {ForecastICU: A Prognostic Decision Support System for Timely Prediction of Intensive Care Unit Admission},
author = {Yoon, Jinsung and Alaa, Ahmed and Hu, Scott and Schaar, Mihaela},
booktitle = {Proceedings of The 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning},
pages = {1680--1689},
year = {2016},
editor = {Balcan, Maria Florina and Weinberger, Kilian Q.},
volume = {48},
series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research},
address = {New York, New York, USA},
month = {20--22 Jun},
publisher = {PMLR},
pdf = {http://proceedings.mlr.press/v48/yoon16.pdf},
url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v48/yoon16.html},
abstract = {We develop ForecastICU: a prognostic decision support system that monitors hospitalized patients and prompts alarms for intensive care unit (ICU) admissions. ForecastICU is first trained in an offline stage by constructing a Bayesian belief system that corresponds to its belief about how trajectories of physiological data streams of the patient map to a clinical status. After that, ForecastICU monitors a new patient in real-time by observing her physiological data stream, updating its belief about her status over time, and prompting an alarm whenever its belief process hits a predefined threshold (confidence). Using a real-world dataset obtained from UCLA Ronald Reagan Medical Center, we show that ForecastICU can predict ICU admissions 9 hours before a physician’s decision (for a sensitivity of 40% and a precision of 50%). Also, ForecastICU performs consistently better than other state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms in terms of sensitivity, precision, and timeliness: it can predict ICU admissions 3 hours earlier, and offers a 7.8% gain in sensitivity and a 5.1% gain in precision compared to the best state-of-the-art algorithm. Moreover, ForecastICU offers an area under curve (AUC) gain of 22.3% compared to the Rothman index, which is the currently deployed technology in most hospital wards.}
}