Automatic Posterior Transformation for Likelihood-Free Inference
David Greenberg, Marcel Nonnenmacher, Jakob Macke
Abstract
How can one perform Bayesian inference on stochastic simulators with intractable likelihoods? A recent approach is to learn the posterior from adaptively proposed simulations using neural network-based conditional density estimators. However, existing methods are limited to a narrow range of proposal distributions or require importance weighting that can limit performance in practice. Here we present automatic posterior transformation (APT), a new sequential neural posterior estimation method for simulation-based inference. APT can modify the posterior estimate using arbitrary, dynamically updated proposals, and is compatible with powerful flow-based density estimators. It is more flexible, scalable and efficient than previous simulation-based inference techniques. APT can operate directly on high-dimensional time series and image data, opening up new applications for likelihood-free inference.
BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v97-greenberg19a,
title = {Automatic Posterior Transformation for Likelihood-Free Inference},
author = {Greenberg, David and Nonnenmacher, Marcel and Macke, Jakob},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 36th International Conference on Machine Learning},
pages = {2404--2414},
year = {2019},
editor = {Chaudhuri, Kamalika and Salakhutdinov, Ruslan},
volume = {97},
series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research},
month = {09--15 Jun},
publisher = {PMLR},
pdf = {http://proceedings.mlr.press/v97/greenberg19a/greenberg19a.pdf},
url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v97/greenberg19a.html},
abstract = {How can one perform Bayesian inference on stochastic simulators with intractable likelihoods? A recent approach is to learn the posterior from adaptively proposed simulations using neural network-based conditional density estimators. However, existing methods are limited to a narrow range of proposal distributions or require importance weighting that can limit performance in practice. Here we present automatic posterior transformation (APT), a new sequential neural posterior estimation method for simulation-based inference. APT can modify the posterior estimate using arbitrary, dynamically updated proposals, and is compatible with powerful flow-based density estimators. It is more flexible, scalable and efficient than previous simulation-based inference techniques. APT can operate directly on high-dimensional time series and image data, opening up new applications for likelihood-free inference.}
}