Batch Stationary Distribution Estimation
Junfeng Wen, Bo Dai, Lihong Li, Dale Schuurmans
Abstract
We consider the problem of approximating the stationary distribution of an ergodic Markov chain given a set of sampled transitions. Classical simulation-based approaches assume access to the underlying process so that trajectories of sufficient length can be gathered to approximate stationary sampling. Instead, we consider an alternative setting where a \emph{fixed} set of transitions has been collected beforehand, by a separate, possibly unknown procedure. The goal is still to estimate properties of the stationary distribution, but without additional access to the underlying system. We propose a consistent estimator that is based on recovering a correction ratio function over the given data. In particular, we develop a variational power method (VPM) that provides provably consistent estimates under general conditions. In addition to unifying a number of existing approaches from different subfields, we also find that VPM yields significantly better estimates across a range of problems, including queueing, stochastic differential equations, post-processing MCMC, and off-policy evaluation.
BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v119-wen20a,
title = {Batch Stationary Distribution Estimation},
author = {Wen, Junfeng and Dai, Bo and Li, Lihong and Schuurmans, Dale},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 37th International Conference on Machine Learning},
pages = {10203--10213},
year = {2020},
editor = {III, Hal Daumé and Singh, Aarti},
volume = {119},
series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research},
month = {13--18 Jul},
publisher = {PMLR},
pdf = {http://proceedings.mlr.press/v119/wen20a/wen20a.pdf},
url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v119/wen20a.html},
abstract = {We consider the problem of approximating the stationary distribution of an ergodic Markov chain given a set of sampled transitions. Classical simulation-based approaches assume access to the underlying process so that trajectories of sufficient length can be gathered to approximate stationary sampling. Instead, we consider an alternative setting where a \emph{fixed} set of transitions has been collected beforehand, by a separate, possibly unknown procedure. The goal is still to estimate properties of the stationary distribution, but without additional access to the underlying system. We propose a consistent estimator that is based on recovering a correction ratio function over the given data. In particular, we develop a variational power method (VPM) that provides provably consistent estimates under general conditions. In addition to unifying a number of existing approaches from different subfields, we also find that VPM yields significantly better estimates across a range of problems, including queueing, stochastic differential equations, post-processing MCMC, and off-policy evaluation.}
}