ClimateAR: Multi-Scale Autoregressive Generative Modeling for Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasting

Abstract

Accurate seasonal‑to‑interannual climate forecasting provides critical support for decision-making in agriculture, energy, and disaster preparedness. Current deterministic models often fail to capture climate uncertainty, while existing generative approaches oversimplify the system by neglecting key spatiotemporal dependencies and cross-scale interactions. To address these limitations, we introduce ClimateAR, an AutoRegressive generative model for probabilistic seasonal-to-interannual Climate forecasting. The framework incorporates two novel components: (1) an aligned tokenizer that bridges and aligns heterogeneous simulation and real-world data to improve transferability across domains, and (2) a mixed-scale conditioning mechanism that captures multi-scale climate interactions for robust probabilistic forecasting. Extensive evaluations on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset show that ClimateAR achieves state-of-the-art performance, improving anomaly correlation skill by 37.56\% on average compared to leading baselines. The Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ClimateAR-956D.