Physically-Guided Data-Space Rectified Flow for Precipitation Nowcasting

Abstract

Reliable long-horizon precipitation nowcasting requires preserving fine-scale echo structures while maintaining coherent transport. Although Rectified Flow (RF) can generate detail-preserving future sequences, numerical ODE integration compounds velocity estimation errors and induces progressive off-manifold drift, causing morphological distortions at extended lead times. We propose Physically-guided Data-space Rectified Flow (PDRF), which re-parameterizes the generative ODE in data space: the network predicts the clean future sequence, analytically inducing a coupled vector field with an implicit restoring effect that suppresses drift. We also introduce a soft Semi-Lagrangian teacher based on an advection prior to regularize large-scale transport, while allowing local growth/decay/deformation to be learned from data. Experiments on four public benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements in event-based skill and better preservation of intense-echo morphology over long horizons.