Unveiling the Entropy Dynamics of Chain-of-Thought Reasoning

Abstract

This paper investigates the entropy dynamics of Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and uncovers a consistent two-phase structure: an ***Uncertainty Region*** of exploration transitioning sharply to a ***Confidence Region*** of convergence. We demonstrate that the Confidence Region possesses two critical properties: 1) ***High Reliability***—answers in confidence region become highly accurate and stable, and 2) ***High Redundancy***—models generate unnecessary tokens long after reaching the correct answer. These properties unlock more efficient and reliable inference strategies: 1) ***Early Exit*** leverages reliability and redundancy to terminate computation safely when returns diminish, and 2) ***Test-Time Scaling*** uses the Confidence Region signal to prioritize converged trajectories. To operationalize these insights, we formulate Confidence Region detection as a sequential change-point detection problem, being the first to apply classical change-point methods to monitor CoT reasoning. Using the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) algorithm, a statistically optimal change-point detector, we develop a training-free framework for real-time inference control. Experiments show our approach establishes a superior Pareto-frontier for early exit. CUSUM achieves 63.06% accuracy with 11.1% token reduction, outperforming DEER and Dynasor by 3.28% and 4.36% in accuracy respectively. For test-time scaling, CUSUM-weighted voting consistently outperforms self-consistency.