Deep Hurdle Networks for Zero-Inflated Multi-Target Regression: Application to Multiple Species Abundance Estimation

Abstract

A key problem in computational sustainability is to understand the distribution of species across landscapes over time. This question gives rise to challenging large-scale prediction problems since (i) hundreds of species have to be simultaneously modeled and (ii) the survey data are usually inflated with zeros due to the absence of species for a large number of sites. The problem of tackling both issues simultaneously, which we refer to as the zero-inflated multi-target regression problem, has not been addressed by previous methods in statistics and machine learning. In this paper, we propose a novel deep model for the zero-inflated multi-target regression problem. To this end, we first model the joint distribution of multiple response variables as a multivariate probit model and then couple the positive outcomes with a multivariate log-normal distribution. By penalizing the difference between the two distributions’ covariance matrices, a link between both distributions is established. The whole model is cast as an end-to-end learning framework and we provide an efficient learning algorithm for our model that can be fully implemented on GPUs. We show that our model outperforms the existing state-of-the-art baselines on two challenging real-world species distribution datasets concerning bird and fish populations.