Deep Hashing-based Dynamic Stock Correlation Estimation via Normalizing Flow

Abstract

In financial scenarios, influenced by common factors such as global macroeconomic and sector-specific factors, stocks exhibit varying degrees of correlations with each other, which is essential in risk-averse portfolio allocation. Because the real risk matrix is unobservable, the covariance-based correlation matrix is widely used for constructing diversified stock portfolios. However, studies have seldom focused on dynamic correlation matrix estimation under the non-stationary financial market. Moreover, as the number of stocks in the market grows, existing correlation matrix estimation methods face more serious challenges with regard to efficiency and effectiveness. In this paper, we propose a novel hash-based dynamic correlation forecasting model (HDCF) to estimate dynamic stock correlations. Under structural assumptions on the correlation matrix, HDCF learns the hash representation based on normalizing flows instead of the real-valued representation, which performs extremely efficiently in high-dimensional settings. Experiments show that our proposed model outperforms baselines on portfolio decisions in terms of effectiveness and efficiency.