Temporally-Continuous Probabilistic Prediction using Polynomial Trajectory Parameterization

Abstract

A commonly-used representation for motion prediction of actors is a sequence of waypoints (comprising positions and orientations) for each actor at discrete future time-points. While regressing waypoints is simple and flexible, it can exhibit unrealistic higher-order derivatives (such as acceleration) and approximation errors at intermediate time steps. To address this issue we propose a general representation for temporally-continuous probabilistic trajectory prediction that regresses polynomial parameterization coefficients. We evaluate the proposed representation on supervised trajectory prediction tasks using two large self-driving data sets. The results show realistic higher-order derivatives and better accuracy at interpolated time-points, as well as the benefits of the inferred noise distributions over the trajectories. Extensive experimental studies based on existing state-of-the-art models demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach relative to other representations in predicting the future motions of vehicle, bicyclist, and pedestrian traffic actors.