Deep Sigma Point Processes
Martin Jankowiak, Geoff Pleiss, Jacob Gardner
Abstract
We introduce Deep Sigma Point Processes, a class of parametric models inspired by the compositional structure of Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs). Deep Sigma Point Processes (DSPPs) retain many of the attractive features of (variational) DGPs, including mini-batch training and predictive uncertainty that is controlled by kernel basis functions. Importantly, since DSPPs admit a simple maximum likelihood inference procedure, the resulting predictive distributions are not degraded by any posterior approximations. In an extensive empirical comparison on univariate and multivariate regression tasks we find that the resulting predictive distributions are significantly better calibrated than those obtained with other probabilistic methods for scalable regression, including variational DGPs–often by as much as a nat per datapoint.
BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v124-jankowiak20a,
title = {Deep Sigma Point Processes},
author = {Jankowiak, Martin and Pleiss, Geoff and Gardner, Jacob},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 36th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI)},
pages = {789--798},
year = {2020},
editor = {Peters, Jonas and Sontag, David},
volume = {124},
series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research},
month = {03--06 Aug},
publisher = {PMLR},
pdf = {http://proceedings.mlr.press/v124/jankowiak20a/jankowiak20a.pdf},
url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v124/jankowiak20a.html},
abstract = {We introduce Deep Sigma Point Processes, a class of parametric models inspired by the compositional structure of Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs). Deep Sigma Point Processes (DSPPs) retain many of the attractive features of (variational) DGPs, including mini-batch training and predictive uncertainty that is controlled by kernel basis functions. Importantly, since DSPPs admit a simple maximum likelihood inference procedure, the resulting predictive distributions are not degraded by any posterior approximations. In an extensive empirical comparison on univariate and multivariate regression tasks we find that the resulting predictive distributions are significantly better calibrated than those obtained with other probabilistic methods for scalable regression, including variational DGPs–often by as much as a nat per datapoint.}
}