Learning good interventions in causal graphs via covering
Ayush Sawarni, Rahul Madhavan, Gaurav Sinha, Siddharth Barman
Abstract
We study the causal bandit problem that entails identifying a near-optimal intervention from a specified set A of (possibly non-atomic) interventions over a given causal graph. Here, an optimal intervention in A is one that maximizes the expected value for a designated reward variable in the graph, and we use the standard notion of simple regret to quantify near optimality. Considering Bernoulli random variables and for causal graphs on N vertices with constant in-degree, prior work has achieved a worst case guarantee of O(N/sqrt(T)) for simple regret. The current work utilizes the idea of covering interventions (which are not necessarily contained within A) and establishes a simple regret guarantee of O(sqrt(N/T)). Notably, and in contrast to prior work, our simple regret bound depends only on explicit parameters of the problem instance. We also go beyond prior work and achieve a simple regret guarantee for causal graphs with unobserved variables. Further, we perform experiments to show improvements over baselines in this setting.
BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v216-sawarni23a,
title = {Learning good interventions in causal graphs via covering},
author = {Sawarni, Ayush and Madhavan, Rahul and Sinha, Gaurav and Barman, Siddharth},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the Thirty-Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence},
pages = {1827--1836},
year = {2023},
editor = {Evans, Robin J. and Shpitser, Ilya},
volume = {216},
series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research},
month = {31 Jul--04 Aug},
publisher = {PMLR},
pdf = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v216/sawarni23a/sawarni23a.pdf},
url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v216/sawarni23a.html},
abstract = {We study the causal bandit problem that entails identifying a near-optimal intervention from a specified set A of (possibly non-atomic) interventions over a given causal graph. Here, an optimal intervention in A is one that maximizes the expected value for a designated reward variable in the graph, and we use the standard notion of simple regret to quantify near optimality. Considering Bernoulli random variables and for causal graphs on N vertices with constant in-degree, prior work has achieved a worst case guarantee of O(N/sqrt(T)) for simple regret. The current work utilizes the idea of covering interventions (which are not necessarily contained within A) and establishes a simple regret guarantee of O(sqrt(N/T)). Notably, and in contrast to prior work, our simple regret bound depends only on explicit parameters of the problem instance. We also go beyond prior work and achieve a simple regret guarantee for causal graphs with unobserved variables. Further, we perform experiments to show improvements over baselines in this setting.}
}