Two Sides of Miscalibration: Identifying Over and Under-Confidence Prediction for Network Calibration
Shuang Ao, Stefan Rueger, Advaith Siddharthan
Abstract
Proper confidence calibration of deep neural networks is essential for reliable predictions in safety-critical tasks. Miscalibration can lead to model over-confidence and/or under-confidence; i.e., the model’s confidence in its prediction can be greater or less than the model’s accuracy. Recent studies have highlighted the over-confidence issue by introducing calibration techniques and demonstrated success on various tasks. However, miscalibration through under-confidence has not yet to receive much attention. In this paper, we address the necessity of paying attention to the under-confidence issue. We first introduce a novel metric, a miscalibration score, to identify the overall and class-wise calibration status, including being over or under-confident. Our proposed metric reveals the pitfalls of existing calibration techniques, where they often overly calibrate the model and worsen under-confident predictions. Then we utilize the class-wise miscalibration score as a proxy to design a calibration technique that can tackle both over and under-confidence. We report extensive experiments that show our proposed methods substantially outperforming existing calibration techniques. We also validate our proposed calibration technique on an automatic failure detection task with a risk-coverage curve, reporting that our methods improve failure detection as well as trustworthiness of the model. The code are available at \url{https://github.com/AoShuang92/miscalibration_TS}.
BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v216-ao23a,
title = {Two Sides of Miscalibration: Identifying Over and Under-Confidence Prediction for Network Calibration},
author = {Ao, Shuang and Rueger, Stefan and Siddharthan, Advaith},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the Thirty-Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence},
pages = {77--87},
year = {2023},
editor = {Evans, Robin J. and Shpitser, Ilya},
volume = {216},
series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research},
month = {31 Jul--04 Aug},
publisher = {PMLR},
pdf = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v216/ao23a/ao23a.pdf},
url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v216/ao23a.html},
abstract = {Proper confidence calibration of deep neural networks is essential for reliable predictions in safety-critical tasks. Miscalibration can lead to model over-confidence and/or under-confidence; i.e., the model’s confidence in its prediction can be greater or less than the model’s accuracy. Recent studies have highlighted the over-confidence issue by introducing calibration techniques and demonstrated success on various tasks. However, miscalibration through under-confidence has not yet to receive much attention. In this paper, we address the necessity of paying attention to the under-confidence issue. We first introduce a novel metric, a miscalibration score, to identify the overall and class-wise calibration status, including being over or under-confident. Our proposed metric reveals the pitfalls of existing calibration techniques, where they often overly calibrate the model and worsen under-confident predictions. Then we utilize the class-wise miscalibration score as a proxy to design a calibration technique that can tackle both over and under-confidence. We report extensive experiments that show our proposed methods substantially outperforming existing calibration techniques. We also validate our proposed calibration technique on an automatic failure detection task with a risk-coverage curve, reporting that our methods improve failure detection as well as trustworthiness of the model. The code are available at \url{https://github.com/AoShuang92/miscalibration_TS}.}
}