5 accepted papers
High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news. While dir…
How can we train agents to navigate uncertainty over long horizons? In this work, we propose ∆Belief-RL, which leverages a language model's own intrinsic beliefs to reward intermediate progress. Our method utilizes the change in the probability an agent assigns to the target solution for credit assi…
As language models are increasingly deployed for complex autonomous tasks, their ability to reason accurately over longer horizons becomes critical. An essential component of this ability is planning and managing a long, complex chain-of-thought (CoT). We introduce LongCoT, a scalable benchmark of 2…
Foundation models have transformed machine learning through large-scale pretraining, massive parameterization, and increased test-time compute. Despite surpassing human performance in several domains, these models remain fundamentally limited in continuous operation, experience accumulation, and per…
Given the recent rapid progress of LLM agents like Claude Code or Codex CLI for software engineering, an important next question is whether they can automate AI research itself. In this paper, we study *post-training*, which is the critical step that turns base LLMs into useful assistants. We introd…