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Charles Thomas Marx

2 accepted papers

2023

Calibration by Distribution Matching: Trainable Kernel Calibration Metrics

NeurIPS 2023poster

Calibration ensures that probabilistic forecasts meaningfully capture uncertainty by requiring that predicted probabilities align with empirical frequencies. However, many existing calibration methods are specialized for post-hoc recalibration, which can worsen the sharpness of forecasts. Drawing on…