9 accepted papers
Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets with correct conditional coverage, leaving practitioners with…
Tabular foundation models, such as TabPFNv2 and TabICL, have recently dethroned gradient-boosted trees at the top of predictive benchmarks, demonstrating the value of in-context learning for tabular data. We introduce TabICooL, a new state-of-the-art foundation model for regression and classificatio…
Inference from tabular data, collections of continuous and categorical variables organized into matrices, is a foundation for modern technology and science. Yet, in contrast to the explosive changes in the rest of AI, the best practice for these predictive tasks has been relatively unchanged and is…
Solving partial differential equations (PDEs) is a fundamental problem in engineering and science. While neural PDE solvers can be more efficient than established numerical solvers, they often require large amounts of training data that is costly to obtain. Active learning (AL) could help surrogate…
With the growing popularity of deep learning and foundation models for tabular data, the need for standardized and reliable benchmarks is higher than ever. However, current benchmarks are static. Their design is not updated even if flaws are discovered, model versions are updated, or new models are…
The long-standing dominance of gradient-boosted decision trees on tabular data is currently challenged by tabular foundation models using In-Context Learning (ICL): setting the training data as context for the test data and predicting in a single forward pass without parameter updates. While TabPFNv…
For classification and regression on tabular data, the dominance of gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDTs) has recently been challenged by often much slower deep learning methods with extensive hyperparameter tuning. We address this discrepancy by introducing (a) RealMLP, an improved multilayer per…
The success of over-parameterized neural networks trained to near-zero training error has caused great interest in the phenomenon of benign overfitting, where estimators are statistically consistent even though they interpolate noisy training data. While benign overfitting in fixed dimension has bee…
We prove a non-asymptotic distribution-independent lower bound for the expected mean squared generalization error caused by label noise in ridgeless linear regression. Our lower bound generalizes a similar known result to the overparameterized (interpolating) regime. In contrast to most previous wor…