6 accepted papers
This paper presents a new approach to automatically discovering accurate models of complex time series data. Working within a Bayesian nonparametric prior over a symbolic space of Gaussian process time series models, we present a novel structure learning algorithm that integrates sequential Monte Ca…
Estimating information-theoretic quantities such as entropy and mutual information is central to many problems in statistics and machine learning, but challenging in high dimensions. This paper presents
This paper introduces a new algorithm for the fundamental problem of generating a random integer from a discrete probability distribution using a source of independent and unbiased random coin flips. We prove that this algorithm, which we call the Fast Loaded Dice Roller (FLDR), is highly efficient…
This article proposes a Bayesian nonparametric method for forecasting, imputation, and clustering in sparsely observed, multivariate time series data. The method is appropriate for jointly modeling hundreds of time series with widely varying, non-stationary dynamics. Given a collection of $N$ time s…
Datasets with hundreds of variables and many missing values are commonplace. In this setting, it is both statistically and computationally challenging to detect true predictive relationships between variables and also to suppress false positives. This paper proposes an approach that combines probabi…
Probabilistic techniques are central to data analysis, but different approaches can be challenging to apply, combine, and compare. This paper introduces composable generative population models (CGPMs), a computational abstraction that extends directed graphical models and can be used to describe and…