29 accepted papers
Normalizing flow-based variational inference (flow VI) is a promising approximate inference approach, but its performance remains inconsistent across studies. Numerous algorithmic choices influence flow VI's performance. We conduct a step-by-step analysis to disentangle the impact of some of the key…
Many domain experts do not have the time or expertise to write formal Bayesian models. This paper takes an informal problem description as input, and combines a large language model and a probabilistic programming language to define a joint distribution over formal models, latent variables, and data…
Variational inference often struggles with the posterior geometry exhibited by complex hierarchical Bayesian models. Recent advances in flow‐based variational families and Variationally Inferred Parameters (VIP) each address aspects of this challenge, but their formal relationship is unexplored. Her…
Predictive posterior densities (PPDs) are essential in approximate inference for quantifying predictive uncertainty and comparing inference methods. Typically, PPDs are estimated by simple Monte Carlo (MC) averages. In this paper, we expose a critical under-recognized issue: the signal-to-noise rati…
Bayesian reasoning in linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) is challenging and often requires advanced sampling techniques like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A common approach is to write the model in a probabilistic programming language and then sample via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). However, th…
Black-box variational inference performance is sometimes hindered by the use of gradient estimators with high variance. This variance comes from two sources of randomness: Data subsampling and Monte Carlo sampling. While existing control variates only address Monte Carlo noise, and incremental gradi…
Black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a general-purpose approximate inference approach that converts inference to a stochastic optimization problem. However, the difficulty of solving the BBVI optimization problem reliably and robustly using stochastic gradient methods has limited its applicabil…
Simulation-based inference has been popular for amortized Bayesian computation. It is typical to have more than one posterior approximation, from different inference algorithms, different architectures, or simply the randomness of initialization and stochastic gradients. With a consistency guarantee…
To check the accuracy of Bayesian computations, it is common to use rank-based simulation-based calibration (SBC). However, SBC has drawbacks: The test statistic is somewhat ad-hoc, interactions are difficult to examine, multiple testing is a challenge, and the resulting p-value is not a divergence…
Many methods that build powerful variational distributions based on unadjusted Langevin transitions exist. Most of these were developed using a wide range of different approaches and techniques. Unfortunately, the lack of a unified analysis and derivation makes developing new methods and reasoning a…
Black-box variational inference is widely used in situations where there is no proof that its stochastic optimization succeeds. We suggest this is due to a theoretical gap in existing stochastic optimization proofs—namely the challenge of gradient estimators with unusual noise bounds, and a composit…
Hierarchical models represent a challenging setting for inference algorithms. MCMC methods struggle to scale to large models with many local variables and observations, and variational inference (VI) may fail to provide accurate approximations due to the use of simple variational families. Some vari…
Variational inference for state space models (SSMs) is known to be hard in general. Recent works focus on deriving variational objectives for SSMs from unbiased sequential Monte Carlo estimators. We reveal that the marginal particle filter is obtained from sequential Monte Carlo by applying Rao-Blac…
It is difficult to use subsampling with variational inference in hierarchical models since the number of local latent variables scales with the dataset. Thus, inference in hierarchical models remains a challenge at a large scale. It is helpful to use a variational family with a structure matching th…
Given an unnormalized target distribution we want to obtain approximate samples from it and a tight lower bound on its (log) normalization constant log Z. Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) with Hamiltonian MCMC is a powerful method that can be used to do this. Its main drawback is that it uses non-…
Several approximate inference algorithms have been proposed to minimize an alpha-divergence between an approximating distribution and a target distribution. Many of these algorithms introduce bias, the magnitude of which becomes problematic in high dimensions. Other algorithms are unbiased. These of…
Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is the workhorse of modern machine learning. Sometimes, there are many different potential gradient estimators that can be used. When so, choosing the one with the best tradeoff between cost and variance is important. This paper analyzes the convergence rates of SGD…
Recent research has seen several advances relevant to black-box VI, but the current state of automatic posterior inference is unclear. One such advance is the use of normalizing flows to define flexible posterior densities for deep latent variable models. Another direction is the integration of Mont…
Flexible variational distributions improve variational inference but are harder to optimize. In this work we present a control variate that is applicable for any reparameterizable distribution with known mean and covariance, e.g. Gaussians with any covariance structure. The control variate is based…
Black-box variational inference tries to approximate a complex target distribution through a gradient-based optimization of the parameters of a simpler distribution. Provable convergence guarantees require structural properties of the objective. This paper shows that for location-scale family approx…
Recent work in variational inference (VI) has used ideas from Monte Carlo estimation to obtain tighter lower bounds on the log-likelihood to be used as objectives for VI. However, there is not a systematic understanding of how optimizing different objectives relates to approximating the posterior di…
Recent variational inference methods use stochastic gradient estimators whose variance is not well understood. Theoretical guarantees for these estimators are important to understand when these methods will or will not work. This paper gives bounds for the common “reparameterization” estimators when…
We study the effects of approximate inference on the performance of Thompson sampling in the $k$-armed bandit problems. Thompson sampling is a successful algorithm for online decision-making but requires posterior inference, which often must be approximated in practice. We show that even small const…
Recent work used importance sampling ideas for better variational bounds on likelihoods. We clarify the applicability of these ideas to pure probabilistic inference, by showing the resulting Importance Weighted Variational Inference (IWVI) technique is an instance of augmented variational inference,…
Variational inference is increasingly being addressed with stochastic optimization. In this setting, the gradient's variance plays a crucial role in the optimization procedure, since high variance gradients lead to poor convergence. A popular approach used to reduce gradient's variance involves the…
Two popular classes of methods for approximate inference are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference. MCMC tends to be accurate if run for a long enough time, while variational inference tends to give better approximations at shorter time horizons. However, the amount of time neede…
We examine the effect of clamping variables for approximate inference in undirected graphical models with pairwise relationships and discrete variables. For any number of variable labels, we demonstrate that clamping and summing approximate sub-partition functions can lead only to a decrease in the…
Inference is typically intractable in high-treewidth undirected graphical models, making maximum likelihood learning a challenge. One way to overcome this is to restrict parameters to a tractable set, most typically the set of tree-structured parameters. This paper explores an alternative notion of…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a successful approach for sampling from continuous densities. However, it has difficulty simulating Hamiltonian dynamics with non-smooth functions, leading to poor performance. This paper is motivated by the behavior of Hamiltonian dynamics in physical systems like o…