17 accepted papers
Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is paramount for inference in engineering applications. A common inference task is to recover full-field information of physical systems from a small number of noisy observations, a usually highly ill-posed problem. Critically, engineering systems often have complicat…
Agent-based models (ABMs) are proliferating as decision-making tools across policy areas in transportation, economics, and epidemiology. In these models, a central object of interest is the discrete origin-destination matrix which captures spatial interactions and agent trip counts between locations…
Laplace’s method approximates a target density with a Gaussian distribution at its mode. It is computationally efficient and asymptotically exact for Bayesian inference due to the Bernstein-von Mises theorem, but for complex targets and finite-data posteriors it is often too crude an approximation.…
Classic graph neural networks show some limitations in information extraction performance when applied to multimodal datasets. This is primarily due to such datasets having high volume, variety, and variability. In this paper, we propose structuring graph neural networks on a new graph representatio…
We introduce a new class of spatially stochastic physics and data informed deep latent models for parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) which operate through scalable variational neural processes. We achieve this by assigning probability measures to the spatial domain, which allows us to…
The efficiency of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) depends on how the underlying geometry of the problem is taken into account. For distributions with strongly varying curvature, Riemannian metrics help in efficient exploration of the target distribution. Unfortunately, they have significant computat…
We introduce a novel state space model for a set of sequentially time-stamped partial rankings of items and textual descriptions for the items. Based on the data, the model infers text-based themes that are predictive of the rankings enabling forecasting tasks and performing trend analysis. We propo…
When maximum likelihood estimation is infeasible, one often turns to score matching, contrastive divergence, or minimum probability flow to obtain tractable parameter estimates. We provide a unifying perspective of these techniques as minimum Stein discrepancy estimators, and use this lens to design…
We consider evidence integration from potentially dependent observation processes under varying spatio-temporal sampling resolutions and noise levels. We offer a multi-resolution multi-task (MRGP) framework that allows for both inter-task and intra-task multi-resolution and multi-fidelity. We develo…
Topic models are becoming increasingly relevant probabilistic models for dimensionality reduction of text data, inferring topics that capture meaningful themes of frequently co-occurring terms. We formulate topic modelling as an information retrieval task, where the goal is, based on the latent topi…
An important task in machine learning and statistics is the approximation of a probability measure by an empirical measure supported on a discrete point set. Stein Points are a class of algorithms for this task, which proceed by sequentially minimising a Stein discrepancy between the empirical measu…
Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods are a set of tools providing posterior distributions on the output of numerical methods. The use of these methods is usually motivated by the fact that they can represent our uncertainty due to incomplete/finite information about the continuous mathematical p…
The standard Kernel Quadrature method for numerical integration with random point sets (also called Bayesian Monte Carlo) is known to converge in root mean square error at a rate determined by the ratio s/d, where s and d encode the smoothness and dimension of the integrand. However, an empirical in…
This paper studies the numerical computation of integrals, representing estimates or predictions, over the output $f(x)$ of a computational model with respect to a distribution $p(\mathrm{d}x)$ over uncertain inputs $x$ to the model. For the functional cardiac models that motivate this work, neither…
Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods are being adopted in statistical applications due to the increasingly challenging nature of numerical integrals that are now routinely encountered. For integrands with d-dimensions and derivatives of order α, an optimal QMC rule converges at a best-possible rate O(N^-…
There is renewed interest in formulating integration as an inference problem, motivated by obtaining a full distribution over numerical error that can be propagated through subsequent computation. Current methods, such as Bayesian Quadrature, demonstrate impressive empirical performance but lack the…
We present a novel class of mixed membership models for joint distributions of groups of observations that co-occur with ordinal response variables for each group for learning statistical associations between the ordinal response variables and the observation groups. The class of proposed models add…