Learning Shrinks the Hard Tail: Training‑Dependent Inference Scaling in a Solvable Linear Model
We analyze neural scaling laws in a solvable model of last-layer fine-tuning where targets have intrinsic, instance-heterogeneous difficulty. In our Latent Instance Difficulty (LID) model, each input's target variance is governed by a latent ''precision'' drawn from a heavy-tailed distribution. Whil…