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Sebastian Gregor Gruber

3 accepted papers

2024

A Bias-Variance-Covariance Decomposition of Kernel Scores for Generative Models

ICML 2024poster

Generative models, like large language models, are becoming increasingly relevant in our daily lives, yet a theoretical framework to assess their generalization behavior and uncertainty does not exist. Particularly, the problem of uncertainty estimation is commonly solved in an ad-hoc and task-depen…

2024

Consistent and Asymptotically Unbiased Estimation of Proper Calibration Errors

AISTATS 2024poster

Proper scoring rules evaluate the quality of probabilistic predictions, playing an essential role in the pursuit of accurate and well-calibrated models. Every proper score decomposes into two fundamental components – proper calibration error and refinement – utilizing a Bregman divergence. While unc…

Cited by 6SourcePDFScholar
2022

Better Uncertainty Calibration via Proper Scores for Classification and Beyond

NeurIPS 2022accept

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the reliability of probabilistic predictions but their estimator…

Cited by 53SourcePDFScholar