18 accepted papers
An agent must try new behaviors to explore and improve. In high-stakes environments, an agent that violates safety constraints may cause harm and must be taken offline, curtailing any future interaction. Imitating old behavior is safe, but excessive conservatism discourages exploration. How much beh…
Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures have become pivotal for large-scale multimodal models. However, their routing mechanisms typically overlook the informative, time-varying interaction dynamics between modalities. This limitation hinders expert specialization, as the model cannot explicitly leve…
Calibration aligns a model's predictive uncertainty with the frequencies of its empirical outcomes and is important toward understanding and trusting reported probabilities. Recent work shows that enforcing calibration at the level of individual predictors can substantially improve ensemble performa…
Responsibly deploying artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning (ML) systems in high-stakes settings arguably requires not only proof of system reliability, but also continual, post-deployment monitoring to quickly detect and address any unsafe behavior. Methods for nonparametric sequential te…
As artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning (ML) gain widespread adoption, practitioners are increasingly seeking means to quantify and control the risk these systems incur. This challenge is especially salient when such systems have autonomy to collect their own data, such as in black-box op…
As machine learning models in critical fields increasingly grapple with multimodal data, they face the dual challenges of handling a wide array of modalities, often incomplete due to missing elements, and the temporal irregularity and sparsity of collected samples. Successfully leveraging this compl…
In this work, we solve the problem of novel category detection under distribution shift. This problem is critical to ensuring the safety and efficacy of machine learning models, particularly in domains such as healthcare where timely detection of novel subgroups of patients is crucial. To address t…
The reliance of text classifiers on spurious correlations can lead to poor generalization at deployment, raising concerns about their use in safety-critical domains such as healthcare. In this work, we propose to use counterfactual data augmentation, guided by knowledge of the causal structure of th…
We study the efficient estimation of predictive confidence intervals for black-box predictors when the common data exchangeability (e.g., i.i.d.) assumption is violated due to potentially feedback-induced shifts in the input data distribution. That is, we focus on standard and feedback covariate shi…
We propose \textbf{JAWS}, a series of wrapper methods for distribution-free uncertainty quantification tasks under covariate shift, centered on the core method \textbf{JAW}, the \textbf{JA}ckknife+ \textbf{W}eighted with data-dependent likelihood-ratio weights. JAWS also includes computationally eff…
As the use of machine learning in high impact domains becomes widespread, the importance of evaluating safety has increased. An important aspect of this is evaluating how robust a model is to changes in setting or population, which typically requires applying the model to multiple, independent datas…
When data contains measurement errors, it is necessary to make modeling assumptions relating the error-prone measurements to the unobserved true values. Work on measurement error has largely focused on models that fully identify the parameter of interest. As a result, many practically useful models…
Machine learning can help personalized decision support by learning models to predict individual treatment effects (ITE). This work studies the reliability of prediction-based decision-making in a task of deciding which action $a$ to take for a target unit after observing its covariates $\tilde{x}$…
To use machine learning in high stakes applications (e.g. medicine), we need tools for building confidence in the system and evaluating whether it is reliable. Methods to improve model reliability often require new learning algorithms (e.g. using Bayesian inference to obtain uncertainty estimates).…
Measurement error in observational datasets can lead to systematic bias in inferences based on these datasets. As studies based on observational data are increasingly used to inform decisions with real-world impact, it is critical that we develop a robust set of techniques for analyzing and adjustin…
Classical supervised learning produces unreliable models when training and target distributions differ, with most existing solutions requiring samples from the target domain. We propose a proactive approach which learns a relationship in the training domain that will generalize to the target domain…
Decision-makers are faced with the challenge of estimating what is likely to happen when they take an action. For instance, if I choose not to treat this patient, are they likely to die? Practitioners commonly use supervised learning algorithms to fit predictive models that help decision-makers reas…
For many complex diseases, there is a wide variety of ways in which an individual can manifest the disease. The challenge of personalized medicine is to develop tools that can accurately predict the trajectory of an individual's disease, which can in turn enable clinicians to optimize treatments. We…