SMOGS: Social Network Metrics of Game Success
Fan Bu, Sonia Xu, Katherine Heller, Alexander Volfovsky
Abstract
In this paper we propose a novel metric of basketball game success, derived from a team’s dynamic social network of game play. We combine ideas from random effects models for network links with taking a multi-resolution stochastic process approach to model passes between teammates. These passes can be viewed as directed dynamic relational links in a network. Multiplicative latent factors are introduced to study higher-order patterns in players’ interactions that distinguish a successful game from a loss. Parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Results in simulation experiments suggest that the sampling scheme is effective in recovering the parameters. We also apply the model to the first high-resolution optical tracking data set collected in college basketball games. The learned latent factors demonstrate significant differences between players’ passing and receiving patterns in a loss, as opposed to a win. Our model is applicable to team sports other than basketball, as well as other time-varying network observations.
BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v89-bu19a,
title = {SMOGS: Social Network Metrics of Game Success},
author = {Bu, Fan and Xu, Sonia and Heller, Katherine and Volfovsky, Alexander},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the Twenty-Second International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics},
pages = {2406--2414},
year = {2019},
editor = {Chaudhuri, Kamalika and Sugiyama, Masashi},
volume = {89},
series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research},
month = {16--18 Apr},
publisher = {PMLR},
pdf = {http://proceedings.mlr.press/v89/bu19a/bu19a.pdf},
url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v89/bu19a.html},
abstract = {In this paper we propose a novel metric of basketball game success, derived from a team’s dynamic social network of game play. We combine ideas from random effects models for network links with taking a multi-resolution stochastic process approach to model passes between teammates. These passes can be viewed as directed dynamic relational links in a network. Multiplicative latent factors are introduced to study higher-order patterns in players’ interactions that distinguish a successful game from a loss. Parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Results in simulation experiments suggest that the sampling scheme is effective in recovering the parameters. We also apply the model to the first high-resolution optical tracking data set collected in college basketball games. The learned latent factors demonstrate significant differences between players’ passing and receiving patterns in a loss, as opposed to a win. Our model is applicable to team sports other than basketball, as well as other time-varying network observations.}
}