AISTATS 2022poster10 citations

Amortised Likelihood-free Inference for Expensive Time-series Simulators with Signatured Ratio Estimation

Joel Dyer, Patrick W. Cannon, Sebastian M. Schmon

Abstract

Simulation models of complex dynamics in the natural and social sciences commonly lack a tractable likelihood function, rendering traditional likelihood-based statistical inference impossible. Recent advances in machine learning have introduced novel algorithms for estimating otherwise intractable likelihood functions using a likelihood ratio trick based on binary classifiers. Consequently, efficient likelihood approximations can be obtained whenever good probabilistic classifiers can be constructed. We propose a kernel classifier for sequential data using

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v151-dyer22a,
  title = 	 { Amortised Likelihood-free Inference for Expensive Time-series Simulators with Signatured Ratio Estimation },
  author =       {Dyer, Joel and Cannon, Patrick W. and Schmon, Sebastian M.},
  booktitle = 	 {Proceedings of The 25th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics},
  pages = 	 {11131--11144},
  year = 	 {2022},
  editor = 	 {Camps-Valls, Gustau and Ruiz, Francisco J. R. and Valera, Isabel},
  volume = 	 {151},
  series = 	 {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research},
  month = 	 {28--30 Mar},
  publisher =    {PMLR},
  pdf = 	 {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v151/dyer22a/dyer22a.pdf},
  url = 	 {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v151/dyer22a.html},
  abstract = 	 { Simulation models of complex dynamics in the natural and social sciences commonly lack a tractable likelihood function, rendering traditional likelihood-based statistical inference impossible. Recent advances in machine learning have introduced novel algorithms for estimating otherwise intractable likelihood functions using a likelihood ratio trick based on binary classifiers. Consequently, efficient likelihood approximations can be obtained whenever good probabilistic classifiers can be constructed. We propose a kernel classifier for sequential data using
Amortised Likelihood-free Inference for Expensive Time-series Simulators with Signatured Ratio Estimation · AISTATS 2022