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Joel Dyer

6 accepted papers

2025

Emergent Risk Awareness in Rational Agents under Resource Constraints

NeurIPS 2025poster

Advanced reasoning models with agentic capabilities (AI agents) are deployed to interact with humans and to solve sequential decision‑making problems under (often approximate) utility functions and internal models. When such problems have resource or failure constraints where action sequences may be…

Cited by 0SourceScholar
2025

Learning Likelihood-Free Reference Priors

ICML 2025poster

Simulation modeling offers a flexible approach to constructing high-fidelity synthetic representations of complex real-world systems. However, the increased complexity of such models introduces additional complications, for example when carrying out statistical inference procedures. This has motivat…

Cited by 0SourcePDFScholar
2024

Causally Abstracted Multi-armed Bandits

UAI 2024poster

Multi-armed bandits (MAB) and causal MABs (CMAB) are established frameworks for decision-making problems. The majority of prior work typically studies and solves individual MAB and CMAB in isolation for a given problem and associated data. However, decision-makers are often faced with multiple relat…

2024

Interventionally Consistent Surrogates for Complex Simulation Models

NeurIPS 2024poster

Large-scale simulation models of complex socio-technical systems provide decision-makers with high-fidelity testbeds in which policy interventions can be evaluated and _what-if_ scenarios explored. Unfortunately, the high computational cost of such models inhibits their widespread use in policy-maki…

Cited by 3SourcePDFScholar
2022

Amortised Likelihood-free Inference for Expensive Time-series Simulators with Signatured Ratio Estimation

AISTATS 2022poster

Simulation models of complex dynamics in the natural and social sciences commonly lack a tractable likelihood function, rendering traditional likelihood-based statistical inference impossible. Recent advances in machine learning have introduced novel algorithms for estimating otherwise intractable l…