Bayesian Calibration of Win Rate Estimation with LLM Evaluators
Yicheng Gao, Gonghan Xu, Zhe Wang, Arman Cohan
Abstract
Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) show the potential of using LLMs as evaluators for assessing the quality of text generations from LLMs. However, applying LLM evaluators naively to compare different systems can lead to unreliable results due to the inaccuracy and intrinsic bias of LLM evaluators. In order to mitigate this problem, we propose two calibration methods, Bayesian Win-Rate Sampling (BWRS) and Bayesian Dawid-Skene, both of which leverage Bayesian inference to more accurately infer the true win rate of generative language models. We empirically validate our methods on six datasets covering story generation, summarization, and instruction following tasks. We show that both our methods are effective in improving the accuracy of win rate estimation using LLMs as evaluators, offering a promising direction for reliable automatic text quality evaluation.
BibTeX
@inproceedings{gao-etal-2024-bayesian,
title = "{B}ayesian Calibration of Win Rate Estimation with {LLM} Evaluators",
author = "Gao, Yicheng and
Xu, Gonghan and
Wang, Zhe and
Cohan, Arman",
editor = "Al-Onaizan, Yaser and
Bansal, Mohit and
Chen, Yun-Nung",
booktitle = "Proceedings of the 2024 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing",
month = nov,
year = "2024",
address = "Miami, Florida, USA",
publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
url = "https://aclanthology.org/2024.emnlp-main.273/",
doi = "10.18653/v1/2024.emnlp-main.273",
pages = "4757--4769"
}