Robust Probabilistic Modeling with Bayesian Data Reweighting
Yixin Wang, Alp Kucukelbir, David M. Blei
Abstract
Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model’s assumptions and reality. We propose a way to systematically detect and mitigate mismatch of a large class of probabilistic models. The idea is to raise the likelihood of each observation to a weight and then to infer both the latent variables and the weights from data. Inferring the weights allows a model to identify observations that match its assumptions and down-weight others. This enables robust inference and improves predictive accuracy. We study four different forms of mismatch with reality, ranging from missing latent groups to structure misspecification. A Poisson factorization analysis of the Movielens 1M dataset shows the benefits of this approach in a practical scenario.
BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v70-wang17g,
title = {Robust Probabilistic Modeling with {B}ayesian Data Reweighting},
author = {Yixin Wang and Alp Kucukelbir and David M. Blei},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 34th International Conference on Machine Learning},
pages = {3646--3655},
year = {2017},
editor = {Precup, Doina and Teh, Yee Whye},
volume = {70},
series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research},
month = {06--11 Aug},
publisher = {PMLR},
pdf = {http://proceedings.mlr.press/v70/wang17g/wang17g.pdf},
url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v70/wang17g.html},
abstract = {Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model’s assumptions and reality. We propose a way to systematically detect and mitigate mismatch of a large class of probabilistic models. The idea is to raise the likelihood of each observation to a weight and then to infer both the latent variables and the weights from data. Inferring the weights allows a model to identify observations that match its assumptions and down-weight others. This enables robust inference and improves predictive accuracy. We study four different forms of mismatch with reality, ranging from missing latent groups to structure misspecification. A Poisson factorization analysis of the Movielens 1M dataset shows the benefits of this approach in a practical scenario.}
}