10 accepted papers
In a probabilistic latent variable model, factorized (or mean-field) variational inference (F-VI) fits a separate parametric distribution for each latent variable. Amortized variational inference (A-VI) instead learns a common inference function, which maps each observation to its corresponding late…
The defining challenge for causal inference from observational data is the presence of ‘confounders’, covariates that affect both treatment assignment and the outcome. To address this challenge, practitioners collect and adjust for the covariates, hoping that they adequately correct for confounding.…
Modern variational inference (VI) uses stochastic gradients to avoid intractable expectations, enabling large-scale probabilistic inference in complex models. VI posits a family of approximating distributions q and then finds the member of that family that is closest to the exact posterior p. Tradit…
Variational autoencoders (VAEs) learn distributions of high-dimensional data. They model data with a deep latent-variable model and then fit the model by maximizing a lower bound of the log marginal likelihood. VAEs can capture complex distributions, but they can also suffer from an issue known as "…
Empirical risk minimization is the main tool for prediction problems, but its extension to relational data remains unsolved. We solve this problem using recent ideas from graph sampling theory to (i) define an empirical risk for relational data and (ii) obtain stochastic gradients for this empirical…
Progress in probabilistic generative models has accelerated, developing richer models with neural architectures, implicit densities, and with scalable algorithms for their Bayesian inference. However, there has been limited progress in models that capture causal relationships, for example, how indiv…
We propose Edward, a Turing-complete probabilistic programming language. Edward defines two compositional representations—random variables and inference. By treating inference as a first class citizen, on a par with modeling, we show that probabilistic programming can be as flexible and computationa…
Probabilistic modeling is cyclical: we specify a model, infer its posterior, and evaluate its performance. Evaluation drives the cycle, as we revise our model based on how it performs. This requires a metric. Traditionally, predictive accuracy prevails. Yet, predictive accuracy does not tell the who…
Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model’s assumptions and reality. We propose a way to systematically dete…
Word embeddings are a widely-used tool to analyze language, and exponential family embeddings (Rudolph et al., 2016) generalize the technique to other types of data. One challenge to fitting embedding methods is sparse data, such as a document/term matrix that contains many zeros. To address this is…