32 accepted papers
Data assimilation (DA) is a cornerstone of scientific and engineering applications, combining model forecasts with sparse and noisy observations to estimate latent system states. Classical high-dimensional DA methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter, rely on Gaussian approximations that are viola…
We introduce a guided stochastic sampling method that augments sampling from diffusion models with physics-based guidance derived from partial differential equation (PDE) residuals and observational constraints, ensuring generated samples remain physically admissible. We embed this sampling procedur…
The Transformer model architecture has become one of the most widely used in deep learning and the attention mechanism is at its core. The standard attention formulation uses a softmax operation applied to a scaled dot product between query and key vectors. We explore the role played by norms of the…
Weather forecasting has seen a shift in methods from numerical simulations to data-driven systems. While initial research in the area focused on deterministic forecasting, recent works have used diffusion models to produce skillful ensemble forecasts. These models are trained on a single forecasting…
Evaluating the performance of clustering models is a challenging task where the outcome depends on the definition of what constitutes a cluster. Due to this design, current existing metrics rarely handle multiple clustering models with diverse cluster definitions, nor do they comply with the integra
A recent line of research has exploited pre-trained generative diffusion models as priors for solving Bayesian inverse problems. We contribute to this research direction by designing a sequential Monte Carlo method for linear-Gaussian inverse problems which builds on ``decoupled diffusion", where th…
Crystalline materials often exhibit a high level of symmetry. However, most generative models do not account for symmetry, but rather model each atom without any constraints on its position or element. We propose a generative model, Wyckoff Diffusion (WyckoffDiff), which generates symmetry-based des…
The three-dimensional structure of proteins plays a crucial role in determining their function. Protein structure prediction methods, like AlphaFold, offer rapid access to a protein’s structure. However, large protein complexes cannot be reliably predicted, and proteins are dynamic, making it import…
We introduce discriminator guidance in the setting of Autoregressive Diffusion Models. The use of a discriminator to guide a diffusion process has previously been used for continuous diffusion models, and in this work we derive ways of using a discriminator together with a pretrained generative mode…
Noise-contrastive estimation (NCE) is a popular method for estimating unnormalised probabilistic models, such as energy-based models, which are effective for modelling complex data distributions. Unlike classical maximum likelihood (ML) estimation that relies on importance sampling (resulting in ML-…
In recent years, machine learning has established itself as a powerful tool for high-resolution weather forecasting. While most current machine learning models focus on deterministic forecasts, accurately capturing the uncertainty in the chaotic weather system calls for probabilistic modeling. We pr…
Detecting novelties given unlabeled examples of normal data is a challenging task in machine learning, particularly when the novel and normal categories are semantically close. Large deep models pretrained on massive datasets can provide a rich representation space in which the simple k-nearest neig…
Self-distillation methods using Siamese networks are popular for self-supervised pre-training. DINO is one such method based on a cross-entropy loss between $K$-dimensional probability vectors, obtained by applying a softmax function to the dot product between representations and learnt prototypes.…
A deep neural classifier trained on an upstream task can be leveraged to boost the performance of another classifier in a related downstream task through the representations learned in hidden layers. However, presence of shortcuts (easy-to-learn features) in the upstream task can considerably impair…
We introduce the Kernel Calibration Conditional Stein Discrepancy test (KCCSD test), a nonparametric, kernel-based test for assessing the calibration of probabilistic models with well-defined scores. In contrast to previous methods, our test avoids the need for possibly expensive expectation approxi…
This paper proposes a temporal graph neural network model for forecasting of graph-structured irregularly observed time series. Our TGNN4I model is designed to handle both irregular time steps and partial observations of the graph. This is achieved by introducing a time-continuous latent state in ea…
Labelling of data for supervised learning can be costly and time-consuming and the risk of incorporating label noise in large data sets is imminent. When training a flexible discriminative model using a strictly proper loss, such noise will inevitably shift the solution towards the conditional distr…
Machine learning methods on graphs have proven useful in many applications due to their ability to handle generally structured data. The framework of Gaussian Markov Random Fields (GMRFs) provides a principled way to define Gaussian models on graphs by utilizing their sparsity structure. We propose…
Most supervised machine learning tasks are subject to irreducible prediction errors. Probabilistic predictive models address this limitation by providing probability distributions that represent a belief over plausible targets, rather than point estimates. Such models can be a valuable tool in decis…
Likelihood of generative models has been used traditionally as a score to detect atypical (Out-of-Distribution, OOD) inputs. However, several recent studies have found this approach to be highly unreliable, even with invertible generative models, where computing the likelihood is feasible. In this…
Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are probabilistic graphical models widely used in spatial statistics and related fields to model dependencies over spatial structures. We establish a formal connection between GMRFs and convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Common GMRFs are special cases of a ge…
Modern variational inference (VI) uses stochastic gradients to avoid intractable expectations, enabling large-scale probabilistic inference in complex models. VI posits a family of approximating distributions q and then finds the member of that family that is closest to the exact posterior p. Tradit…
We consider the combined use of resampling and partial rejection control in sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle filters. While the variance reducing properties of rejection control are known, there has not been (to the best of our knowledge) any work on unbiased estimation of the…
In safety-critical applications a probabilistic model is usually required to be calibrated, i.e., to capture the uncertainty of its predictions accurately. In multi-class classification, calibration of the most confident predictions only is often not sufficient. We propose and study calibration meas…
Probabilistic classifiers output a probability distribution on target classes rather than just a class prediction. Besides providing a clear separation of prediction and decision making, the main advantage of probabilistic models is their ability to represent uncertainty about predictions. In safety…
Bayesian inference in state-space models is challenging due to high-dimensional state trajectories. A viable approach is particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC), combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo to form ``exact approximations'' to otherwise-intractable MCMC methods. The performance of the…
Sampling from posterior distributions using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can require an exhaustive number of iterations, particularly when the posterior is multi-modal as the MCMC sampler can become trapped in a local mode for a large number of iterations. In this paper, we introduce the…
Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases that are hard to quantify. The latter enjoy asymptotic consiste…
We introduce interacting particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (iPMCMC), a PMCMC method based on an interacting pool of standard and conditional sequential Monte Carlo samplers. Like related methods, iPMCMC is a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler on an extended space. We present empirical results that sho…
We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo (NSMC), a methodology to sample from sequences of probability distributions, even where the random variables are high-dimensional. NSMC generalises the SMC framework by requiring only approximate, properly weighted, samples from the SMC proposal distribution,…
The particle Gibbs algorithm can be used for Bayesian parameter estimation in Markovian state space models. Sometimes the resulting Markov chains mix slowly when the component particle filter suffers from degeneracy. This effect can be somewhat alleviated using backward simulation. In this paper we…
Recently, the Frank-Wolfe optimization algorithm was suggested as a procedure to obtain adaptive quadrature rules for integrals of functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) with a potentially faster rate of convergence than Monte Carlo integration (and “kernel herding” was shown to be a…