74 accepted papers
We introduce a (de)-regularization of the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (DrMMD) and its Wasserstein gradient flow. Existing gradient flows that transport samples from source distribution to target distribution with only target samples, either lack tractable numerical implementation ($f$-divergence flows)…
Reliable uncertainty quantification for causal effects is crucial in various applications, but remains difficult in nonparametric models, particularly for continuous treatments. We introduce IMPspec, a Gaussian process (GP) framework for modeling uncertainty over interventional causal functions unde…
Classifier-free guidance (CFG) is a widely used technique for improving the perceptual quality of samples from conditional diffusion models. It operates by linearly combining conditional and unconditional score estimates using a *guidance weight* $\omega$. While a large, static weight can markedly i…
We address the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of hidden confounders using nonparametric instrumental variable (IV) regression. An established approach is to use estimators based on learned \emph{spectral features}, that is, features spanning the top singular subspaces of the ope…
Non-monotonic sequence generation methods, such as masked diffusion models, provide a flexible alternative to left-to-right autoregressive modeling by allowing tokens to be generated in non-fixed and prescribed orders. Despite their practical advantages, most existing non-monotonic models are order-…
Learning effective data representations has been crucial in non-parametric two-sample testing. Common approaches will first split data into training and test sets and then learn data representations purely on the training set. However, recent theoretical studies have shown that, as long as the sampl
Speculative sampling is a popular technique for accelerating inference in Large Language Models by generating candidate tokens using a fast draft model and then accepting or rejecting them based on the target model's distribution. While speculative sampling was previously limited to discrete sequenc…
We introduce credal two-sample testing, a new hypothesis testing framework for comparing credal sets---convex sets of probability measures where each element captures aleatoric uncertainty and the set itself represents epistemic uncertainty that arises from the modeller's partial ignorance. Compared…
We propose a gradient flow procedure for generative modeling by transporting particles from an initial source distribution to a target distribution, where the gradient field on the particles is given by a noise-adaptive Wasserstein Gradient of the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). The noise adaptive M…
We address the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of hidden confounders, using nonparametric instrumental variable (IV) regression. A leading strategy employs \emph{spectral features} - that is, learned features spanning the top eigensubspaces of the operator linking treatments to i…
We study the problem of causal function estimation in the Proxy Causal Learning (PCL) framework, where confounders are not observed but proxies for the confounders are available. Two main approaches have been proposed: outcome bridge-based and treatment bridge-based methods. In this work, we propos…
We address the setting of Proxy Causal Learning (PCL), which has the goal of estimating causal effects from observed data in the presence of hidden confounding. Proxy methods accomplish this task using two proxy variables related to the latent confounder: a treatment proxy (related to the treatment)…
Diffusion models generate high-quality synthetic data. They operate by defining a continuous-time forward process which gradually adds Gaussian noise to data until fully corrupted. The corresponding reverse process progressively ``denoises" a Gaussian sample into a sample from the data distribution…
Estimating the distribution of outcomes under counterfactual policies is critical for decision-making in domains such as recommendation, advertising, and healthcare. We propose and analyze a novel framework—Counterfactual Policy Mean Embedding (CPME)—that represents the entire counterfactual outcome…
We consider the problem of causal effect estimation with an unobserved confounder, where we observe a single proxy variable that is associated with the confounder. Although it has been shown that the recovery of an average causal effect is impossible in general from a single proxy variable, we show…
Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data types, such as graphs, the canonical ordering is less obvious.…
Tests of conditional independence (CI) underpin a number of important problems in machine learning and statistics, from causal discovery to evaluation of predictor fairness and out-of-distribution robustness. Shah and Peters (2020) showed that, contrary to the unconditional case, no universally fini…
We provide a convergence analysis of \emph{deep feature instrumental variable} (DFIV) regression (Xu et al., 2021), a nonparametric approach to IV regression using data-adaptive features learned by deep neural networks in two stages. We prove that the DFIV algorithm achieves the minimax optimal lear…
This paper examines the performance of ridge regression in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces in the presence of noise that exhibits a finite number of higher moments. We establish excess risk bounds consisting of subgaussian and polynomial terms based on the well known integral operator framework.…
We present an end-to-end framework for generating synthetic users for evaluating interactive agents designed to encourage positive behavior changes, such as in health and lifestyle coaching. The synthetic users are grounded in health and lifestyle conditions, specifically sleep and diabetes manageme…
We study the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of unobserved confounders, focusing on two settings: instrumental variable (IV) regression with additional observed confounders, and proxy causal learning. Our approach uses a singular value decomposition of a conditional expectation o…
This paper contributes a new approach for distributional reinforcement learning which elucidates a clean separation of transition structure and reward in the learning process. Analogous to how the successor representation (SR) describes the expected consequences of behaving according to a given poli…
We propose a novel approach for estimating conditional or parametric expectations in the setting where obtaining samples or evaluating integrands is costly. Through the framework of probabilistic numerical methods (such as Bayesian quadrature), our novel approach allows to incorporates prior inform…
We propose a novel algorithmic framework for distributional reinforcement learning, based on learning finite-dimensional mean embeddings of return distributions. The framework reveals a wide variety of new algorithms for dynamic programming and temporal-difference algorithms that rely on the sketch…
In reinforcement learning (RL), the consideration of multivariate reward signals has led to fundamental advancements in multi-objective decision-making, transfer learning, and representation learning. This work introduces the first oracle-free and computationally-tractable algorithms for provably co…
Failures of fairness or robustness in machine learning predictive settings can be due to undesired dependencies between covariates, outcomes and auxiliary factors of variation. A common strategy to mitigate these failures is data balancing, which attempts to remove those undesired dependencies. In t…
We provide a non-asymptotic analysis of the contrastive divergence (CD) algorithm, a training method for unnormalized models. While prior work has established that (for exponential family distributions) the CD iterates asymptotically converge at an $O(n^{-1 / 3})$ rate to the true parameter of the d…
We study theoretical properties of a broad class of regularized algorithms with vector-valued output. These spectral algorithms include kernel ridge regression, kernel principal component regression and various implementations of gradient descent. Our contributions are twofold. First, we rigorously…
We study the problem of domain adaptation under distribution shift, where the shift is due to a change in the distribution of an unobserved, latent variable that confounds both the covariates and the labels. In this setting, neither the covariate shift nor the label shift assumptions apply. Our appr…
We propose a goodness-of-fit measure for probability densities modeling observations with varying dimensionality, such as text documents of differing lengths or variable-length sequences. The proposed measure is an instance of the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), which has been used to construct good…
We consider the estimation of average and counterfactual treatment effects, under two settings: back-door adjustment and front-door adjustment. The goal in both cases is to recover the treatment effect without having an access to a hidden confounder. This objective is attained by first estimating t…
We address the problem of unsupervised domain adaptation when the source domain differs from the target domain because of a shift in the distribution of a latent subgroup. When this subgroup confounds all observed data, neither covariate shift nor label shift assumptions apply. We show that the opti…
We introduce the Conditional Independence Regression CovariancE (CIRCE), a measure of conditional independence for multivariate continuous-valued variables. CIRCE applies as a regularizer in settings where we wish to learn neural features $\varphi(X)$ of data $X$ to estimate a target $Y$, while bein…
We introduce the Kernel Calibration Conditional Stein Discrepancy test (KCCSD test), a nonparametric, kernel-based test for assessing the calibration of probabilistic models with well-defined scores. In contrast to previous methods, our test avoids the need for possibly expensive expectation approxi…
We propose novel statistics which maximise the power of a two-sample test based on the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), by adapting over the set of kernels used in defining it. For finite sets, this reduces to combining (normalised) MMD values under each of these kernels via a weighted soft maximum.…
We propose a kernel-based nonparametric estimator for the causal effect when the cause is corrupted by error. We do so by generalizing estimation in the instrumental variable setting. Despite significant work on regression with measurement error, additionally handling unobserved confounding in the c…
There is currently a debate within the neuroscience community over the likelihood of the brain performing backpropagation (BP). To better mimic the brain, training a network one layer at a time with only a "single forward pass" has been proposed as an alternative to bypass BP; we refer to these netw…
We propose a series of computationally efficient, nonparametric tests for the two-sample, independence and goodness-of-fit problems, using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), Hilbert Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC), and Kernel Stein Discrepancy (KSD), respectively. Our test statistics are inc…
We study a nonparametric approach to Bayesian computation via feature means, where the expectation of prior features is updated to yield expected posterior features, based on regression from kernel or neural net features of the observations. All quantities involved in the Bayesian update are learned…
We investigate properties of goodness-of-fit tests based on the Kernel Stein Discrepancy (KSD). We introduce a strategy to construct a test, called KSDAgg, which aggregates multiple tests with different kernels. KSDAgg avoids splitting the data to perform kernel selection (which leads to a loss in t…
We address the consistency of a kernel ridge regression estimate of the conditional mean embedding (CME), which is an embedding of the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $X$ into a target reproducing kernel Hilbert space $\mathcal{H}_Y$. The CME allows us to take conditional expectations of targ…
One of the core assumptions in causal discovery is the faithfulness assumption—i.e. assuming that independencies found in the data are due to separations in the true causal graph. This assumption can, however, be violated in many ways, including xor connections, deterministic functions or cancelling…
Proxy causal learning (PCL) is a method for estimating the causal effect of treatments on outcomes in the presence of unobserved confounding, using proxies (structured side information) for the confounder. This is achieved via two-stage regression: in the first stage, we model relations among the tr…
A novel optimization approach is proposed for application to policy gradient methods and evolution strategies for reinforcement learning (RL). The procedure uses a computationally efficient \emph{Wasserstein natural gradient} (WNG) descent that takes advantage of the geometry induced by a Wasserstei…
We introduce the Generalized Energy Based Model (GEBM) for generative modelling. These models combine two trained components: a base distribution (generally an implicit model), which can learn the support of data with low intrinsic dimension in a high dimensional space; and an energy function, to r…
We study the gradient flow for a relaxed approximation to the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between a moving source and a fixed target distribution. This approximation, termed the KALE (KL approximate lower-bound estimator), solves a regularized version of the Fenchel dual problem defining the KL…
Instrumental variable (IV) regression is a standard strategy for learning causal relationships between confounded treatment and outcome variables from observational data by using an instrumental variable, which affects the outcome only through the treatment. In classical IV regression, learning proc…
We address the problem of causal effect estima-tion in the presence of unobserved confounding,but where proxies for the latent confounder(s) areobserved. We propose two kernel-based meth-ods for nonlinear causal effect estimation in thissetting: (a) a two-stage regression approach, and(b) a maximum…
We approach self-supervised learning of image representations from a statistical dependence perspective, proposing Self-Supervised Learning with the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (SSL-HSIC). SSL-HSIC maximizes dependence between representations of transformations of an image and the image i…
We study the Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) algorithm, which optimises a set of particles to approximate a target probability distribution $\pi\propto e^{-V}$ on $\R^d$. In the population limit, SVGD performs gradient descent in the space of probability distributions on the KL divergence…
We consider settings in which the data of interest correspond to pairs of ordered times, e.g, the birth times of the first and second child, the times at which a new user creates an account and makes the first purchase on a website, and the entry and survival times of patients in a clinical trial. I…
Survival Analysis and Reliability Theory are concerned with the analysis of time-to-event data, in which observations correspond to waiting times until an event of interest such as death from a particular disease or failure of a component in a mechanical system. This type of data is unique due to th…
We propose a class of kernel-based two-sample tests, which aim to determine whether two sets of samples are drawn from the same distribution. Our tests are constructed from kernels parameterized by deep neural nets, trained to maximize test power. These tests adapt to variations in distribution smoo…
We introduce a kernel-based goodness-of-fit test for censored data, where observations may be missing in random time intervals: a common occurrence in clinical trials and industrial life-testing. The test statistic is straightforward to compute, as is the test threshold, and we establish consistency…
We present an efficient algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of exponential family models, with a general parametrization of the energy function that includes neural networks. We exploit the primal-dual view of the MLE with a kinetics augmented model to obtain an estimate associated wi…
We investigate penalized maximum log-likelihood estimation for exponential family distributions whose natural parameter resides in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Key to our approach is a novel technique, doubly dual embedding, that avoids computation of the partition function. This technique al…
Instrumental variable (IV) regression is a strategy for learning causal relationships in observational data. If measurements of input X and output Y are confounded, the causal relationship can nonetheless be identified if an instrumental variable Z is available that influences X directly, but is con…
The kernel exponential family is a rich class of distributions, which can be fit efficiently and with statistical guarantees by score matching. Being required to choose a priori a simple kernel such as the Gaussian, however, limits its practical applicability. We provide a scheme for learning a kern…
We construct a Wasserstein gradient flow of the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) and study its convergence properties. The MMD is an integral probability metric defined for a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), and serves as a metric on probability measures for a sufficiently rich RKHS. We obt…
We present a novel model architecture which leverages deep learning tools to perform exact Bayesian inference on sets of high dimensional, complex observations. Our model is provably exchangeable, meaning that the joint distribution over observations is invariant under permutation: this property lie…
We investigate the training and performance of generative adversarial networks using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) as critic, termed MMD GANs. As our main theoretical contribution, we clarify the situation with bias in GAN loss functions raised by recent work: we show that gradient estimators u…
We propose a fast method with statistical guarantees for learning an exponential family density model where the natural parameter is in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, and may be infinite dimensional. The model is learned by fitting the derivative of the log density, the score, thus avoiding the…
Given two candidate models, and a set of target observations, we address the problem of measuring the relative goodness of fit of the two models. We propose two new statistical tests which are nonparametric, computationally efficient (runtime complexity is linear in the sample size), and interpretab…
A nonparametric family of conditional distributions is introduced, which generalizes conditional exponential families using functional parameters in a suitable RKHS. An algorithm is provided for learning the generalized natural parameter, and consistency of the estimator is established in the well…
We propose a principled method for gradient-based regularization of the critic of GAN-like models trained by adversarially optimizing the kernel of a Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). We show that controlling the gradient of the critic is vital to having a sensible loss function, and devise a method t…
We propose a novel adaptive test of goodness-of-fit, with computational cost linear in the number of samples. We learn the test features that best indicate the differences between observed samples and a reference model, by minimizing the false negative rate. These features are constructed via Stein'…
A new computationally efficient dependence measure, and an adaptive statistical test of independence, are proposed. The dependence measure is the difference between analytic embeddings of the joint distribution and the product of the marginals, evaluated at a finite set of locations (features). Thes…
We propose a method to optimize the representation and distinguishability of samples from two probability distributions, by maximizing the estimated power of a statistical test based on the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). This optimized MMD is applied to the setting of unsupervised learning by gener…
We propose a nonparametric statistical test for goodness-of-fit: given a set of samples, the test determines how likely it is that these were generated from a target density function. The measure of goodness-of-fit is a divergence constructed via Stein’s method using functions from a Reproducing Ker…
Two semimetrics on probability distributions are proposed, given as the sum of differences of expectations of analytic functions evaluated at spatial or frequency locations (i.e, features). The features are chosen so as to maximize the distinguishability of the distributions, by optimizing a lower b…
We describe a novel non-parametric statistical hypothesis test of relative dependence between a source variable and two candidate target variables. Such a test enables us to determine whether one source variable is significantly more dependent on a first target variable or a second. Dependence is me…
We propose a class of nonparametric two-sample tests with a cost linear in the sample size. Two tests are given, both based on an ensemble of distances between analytic functions representing each of the distributions. The first test uses smoothed empirical characteristic functions to represent the…
We propose Kernel Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (KMC), a gradient-free adaptive MCMC algorithm based on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). On target densities where classical HMC is not an option due to intractable gradients, KMC adaptively learns the target's gradient structure by fitting an exponential fami…
We focus on the distribution regression problem: regressing to a real-valued response from a probability distribution. Although there exist a large number of similarity measures between distributions, very little is known about their generalization performance in specific learning tasks. Learning pr…