UAI 2023poster7 citations

Fast and scalable score-based kernel calibration tests

Pierre Glaser, David Widmann, Fredrik Lindsten, Arthur Gretton

Abstract

We introduce the Kernel Calibration Conditional Stein Discrepancy test (KCCSD test), a nonparametric, kernel-based test for assessing the calibration of probabilistic models with well-defined scores. In contrast to previous methods, our test avoids the need for possibly expensive expectation approximations while providing control over its type-I error. We achieve these improvements by using a new family of kernels for score-based probabilities that can be estimated without probability density samples, and by using a Conditional Goodness of Fit criterion for the KCCSD test’s U-statistic. We demonstrate the properties of our test on various synthetic settings.

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v216-glaser23a,
  title = 	 {Fast and scalable score-based kernel calibration tests},
  author =       {Glaser, Pierre and Widmann, David and Lindsten, Fredrik and Gretton, Arthur},
  booktitle = 	 {Proceedings of the Thirty-Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence},
  pages = 	 {691--700},
  year = 	 {2023},
  editor = 	 {Evans, Robin J. and Shpitser, Ilya},
  volume = 	 {216},
  series = 	 {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research},
  month = 	 {31 Jul--04 Aug},
  publisher =    {PMLR},
  pdf = 	 {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v216/glaser23a/glaser23a.pdf},
  url = 	 {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v216/glaser23a.html},
  abstract = 	 {We introduce the Kernel Calibration Conditional Stein Discrepancy test (KCCSD test), a nonparametric, kernel-based test for assessing the calibration of probabilistic models with well-defined scores. In contrast to previous methods, our test avoids the need for possibly expensive expectation approximations while providing control over its type-I error. We achieve these improvements by using a new family of kernels for score-based probabilities that can be estimated without probability density samples, and by using a Conditional Goodness of Fit criterion for the KCCSD test’s U-statistic. We demonstrate the properties of our test on various synthetic settings.}
}
Fast and scalable score-based kernel calibration tests · UAI 2023