4 accepted papers
Reliable uncertainty quantification for causal effects is crucial in various applications, but remains difficult in nonparametric models, particularly for continuous treatments. We introduce IMPspec, a Gaussian process (GP) framework for modeling uncertainty over interventional causal functions unde…
Bivariate structural causal models (SCM) are often used to infer causal direction by examining their goodness-of-fit under restricted model classes. In this paper, we describe a parametrization of bivariate SCMs in terms of a *causal velocity* by viewing the cause variable as time in a dynamical sys…
With the advent of automatic vectorization tools (e.g., JAX's vmap), writing multi-chain MCMC algorithms is often now as simple as invoking those tools on single-chain code. Whilst convenient, for various MCMC algorithms this results in a synchronization problem---loosely speaking, at each iteration…
Variable selection in Gaussian processes (GPs) is typically undertaken by thresholding the inverse lengthscales of automatic relevance determination kernels, but in high-dimensional datasets this approach can be unreliable. A more probabilistically principled alternative is to use spike and slab pri…