31 accepted papers
Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization is a defining hallmark of truly robust and reliable machine learning systems. Recently, it has been empirically observed that existing OOD generalization methods often underperform on real-world tabular data, where hidden confounding shifts drive distribution…
Shapley values are widely recognized as a principled method for attributing importance to input features in machine learning. However, the exact computation of Shapley values scales exponentially with the number of features, severely limiting the practical application of this powerful approach. The
We study off-policy evaluation (OPE) under strategic behavior where decision subjects (or agents) respond to a decision maker's policy by strategically modifying their covariates. Such behavior induces a policy-dependent covariate shift, breaking the standard assumption in existing methods that cova…
Performative predictions influence the very outcomes they aim to forecast. We study performative predictions that affect a sample (e.g., only existing users of an app) and/or the whole population (e.g., all potential app users). This raises the question of how well models generalize under performati…
Distribution shifts introduce uncertainty that undermines the robustness and generalization capabilities of machine learning models. While conventional wisdom suggests that learning causal-invariant representations enhances robustness to such shifts, recent empirical studies present a counterintuiti…
The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for gen…
We introduce credal two-sample testing, a new hypothesis testing framework for comparing credal sets---convex sets of probability measures where each element captures aleatoric uncertainty and the set itself represents epistemic uncertainty that arises from the modeller's partial ignorance. Compared…
Quantifying differences between probability distributions is fundamental to statistics and machine learning, primarily for comparing statistical uncertainty. In contrast, epistemic uncertainty---due to incomplete knowledge---requires richer representations than those offered by classical probability…
Embedding probability distributions into reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) has enabled powerful nonparametric methods such as the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), a statistical distance with strong theoretical and computational properties. At its core, the MMD relies on kernel mean embeddings…
Learning robust models under distribution shifts between training and test datasets is a fundamental challenge in machine learning. While learning invariant features across environments is a popular approach, it often assumes that these features are fully observed in both training and test sets--a c…
The quality of probabilistic forecasts is crucial for decision-making under uncertainty. While proper scoring rules incentivize truthful reporting of precise forecasts, they fall short when forecasters face epistemic uncertainty about their beliefs, limiting their use in safety-critical domains wher
We study the problem of agent selection in causal strategic learning under multiple decision makers and address two key challenges that come with it. Firstly, while much of prior work focuses on studying a fixed pool of agents that remains static regardless of their evaluations, we consider the imp…
Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalisation is challenging because it involves not only learning from empirical data, but also deciding among various notions of generalisation, e.g. optimise based on the average-case risk, worst-case risk, or interpolations thereof. While this decision should in princi…
Like many optimizers, Bayesian optimization often falls short of gaining user trust due to opacity. While attempts have been made to develop human-centric optimizers, they typically assume user knowledge is well-specified and error-free, employing users mainly as supervisors of the optimization proc…
Causality is a central concept in a wide range of research areas, yet there is still no universally agreed axiomatisation of causality. We view causality both as an extension of probability theory and as a study of what happens when one intervenes on a system, and argue in favour of taking Kolmogoro…
We present a novel approach for explaining Gaussian processes (GPs) that can utilize the full analytical covariance structure present in GPs. Our method is based on the popular solution concept of Shapley values extended to stochastic cooperative games, resulting in explanations that are random vari…
Being able to provide explanations for a model's decision has become a central requirement for the development, deployment, and adoption of machine learning models. However, we are yet to understand what explanation methods can and cannot do. How do upstream factors such as data, model prediction, h…
The Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) has been the state-of-the-art nonparametric test for tackling the two-sample problem. Its statistic is given by the difference in expectations of the witness function, a real-valued function defined as a weighted sum of kernel evaluations on a set of basis points.…
Two-sample tests are important in statistics and machine learning, both as tools for scientific discovery as well as to detect distribution shifts. This led to the development of many sophisticated test procedures going beyond the standard supervised learning frameworks, whose usage can require spec…
Important problems in causal inference, economics, and, more generally, robust machine learning can be expressed as conditional moment restrictions, but estimation becomes challenging as it requires solving a continuum of unconditional moment restrictions. Previous works addressed this problem by ex…
We propose to analyse the conditional distributional treatment effect (CoDiTE), which, in contrast to the more common conditional average treatment effect (CATE), is designed to encode a treatment’s distributional aspects beyond the mean. We first introduce a formal definition of the CoDiTE associat…
We address the problem of causal effect estima-tion in the presence of unobserved confounding,but where proxies for the latent confounder(s) areobserved. We propose two kernel-based meth-ods for nonlinear causal effect estimation in thissetting: (a) a two-stage regression approach, and(b) a maximum…
We present a new operator-free, measure-theoretic approach to the conditional mean embedding as a random variable taking values in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. While the kernel mean embedding of marginal distributions has been defined rigorously, the existing operator-based approach of the co…
We present a novel algorithm for non-linear instrumental variable (IV) regression, DualIV, which simplifies traditional two-stage methods via a dual formulation. Inspired by problems in stochastic programming, we show that two-stage procedures for non-linear IV regression can be reformulated as a co…
Consequential decisions are increasingly informed by sophisticated data-driven predictive models. However, consistently learning accurate predictive models requires access to ground truth labels. Unfortunately, in practice, labels may only exist conditional on certain decisions—if a loan is denied,…
We introduce a novel conditional density estimationmodel termed the conditional densityoperator (CDO). It naturally captures multivariate,multimodal output densities andshows performance that is competitive withrecent neural conditional density models andGaussian processes. The proposed model isbase…
We propose a new family of specification tests called kernel conditional moment (KCM) tests. Our tests are built on a novel representation of conditional moment restrictions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) called conditional moment embedding (CMME). After transforming the conditional mo…
Modern large-scale kernel-based tests such as maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) and kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD) optimize kernel hyperparameters on a held-out sample via data splitting to obtain the most powerful test statistics. While data splitting results in a tractable null distribution, it s…
Meta-learning improves generalization of machine learning models when faced with previously unseen tasks by leveraging experiences from different, yet related prior tasks. To allow for better generalization, we propose a novel task representation called model-aware task embedding (MATE) that incorpo…
Fine-grained temporal action parsing is important in many applications, such as daily activity understanding, human motion analysis, surgical robotics and others requiring subtle and precise operations over a long-term period. In this paper we propose a novel bilinear pooling operation, which is use…
We pose causal inference as the problem of learning to classify probability distributions. In particular, we assume access to a collection {(S_i,l_i)}_i=1^n, where each S_i is a sample drawn from the probability distribution of X_i \times Y_i, and l_i is a binary label indicating whether “X_i \to Y_…