Graph Mixture Density Networks
Federico Errica, Davide Bacciu, Alessio Micheli
Abstract
We introduce the Graph Mixture Density Networks, a new family of machine learning models that can fit multimodal output distributions conditioned on graphs of arbitrary topology. By combining ideas from mixture models and graph representation learning, we address a broader class of challenging conditional density estimation problems that rely on structured data. In this respect, we evaluate our method on a new benchmark application that leverages random graphs for stochastic epidemic simulations. We show a significant improvement in the likelihood of epidemic outcomes when taking into account both multimodality and structure. The empirical analysis is complemented by two real-world regression tasks showing the effectiveness of our approach in modeling the output prediction uncertainty. Graph Mixture Density Networks open appealing research opportunities in the study of structure-dependent phenomena that exhibit non-trivial conditional output distributions.
BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v139-errica21a,
title = {Graph Mixture Density Networks},
author = {Errica, Federico and Bacciu, Davide and Micheli, Alessio},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 38th International Conference on Machine Learning},
pages = {3025--3035},
year = {2021},
editor = {Meila, Marina and Zhang, Tong},
volume = {139},
series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research},
month = {18--24 Jul},
publisher = {PMLR},
pdf = {http://proceedings.mlr.press/v139/errica21a/errica21a.pdf},
url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v139/errica21a.html},
abstract = {We introduce the Graph Mixture Density Networks, a new family of machine learning models that can fit multimodal output distributions conditioned on graphs of arbitrary topology. By combining ideas from mixture models and graph representation learning, we address a broader class of challenging conditional density estimation problems that rely on structured data. In this respect, we evaluate our method on a new benchmark application that leverages random graphs for stochastic epidemic simulations. We show a significant improvement in the likelihood of epidemic outcomes when taking into account both multimodality and structure. The empirical analysis is complemented by two real-world regression tasks showing the effectiveness of our approach in modeling the output prediction uncertainty. Graph Mixture Density Networks open appealing research opportunities in the study of structure-dependent phenomena that exhibit non-trivial conditional output distributions.}
}