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Alvaro Cartea

4 accepted papers

2026

Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model

ICML 2026poster

We derive a robust update rule for the online infinite hidden Markov model (iHMM) for when the streaming data contains outliers and the model is misspecified. Leveraging recent advances in generalised Bayesian inference, we define robustness via the posterior influence function (PIF), and provide co…

Cited by 0SourceScholar
2026

Richer Bayesian Last Layers with Subsampled NTK Features

ICML 2026poster

Bayesian last layers (BLLs) provide a convenient and computationally efficient way to estimate uncertainty in neural networks. However, they underestimate epistemic uncertainty because they apply a Bayesian treatment only to the final layer, ignoring uncertainty induced by earlier layers. We propose…

Cited by 0SourceScholar
2025

Martingale Posterior Neural Networks for Fast Sequential Decision Making

NeurIPS 2025poster

We introduce scalable algorithms for online learning of neural network parameters and Bayesian sequential decision making. Unlike classical Bayesian neural networks, which induce predictive uncertainty through a posterior over model parameters, our methods adopt a predictive-first perspective based…

Cited by 0SourceScholar
2024

Rough Transformers: Lightweight and Continuous Time Series Modelling through Signature Patching

NeurIPS 2024poster

Time-series data in real-world settings typically exhibit long-range dependencies and are observed at non-uniform intervals. In these settings, traditional sequence-based recurrent models struggle. To overcome this, researchers often replace recurrent models with Neural ODE-based architectures to ac…