21 accepted papers
The performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) hinges on carefully engineered prompts. However, prevailing prompt optimization methods, ranging from heuristic edits and reinforcement learning to evolutionary search, primarily target point-wise accuracy. They seldom enforce paraphrase invariance or…
We introduce a new context-enriched, multimodal time series forecasting benchmark TimesX. TimesX contains a wide selection of high-quality real-world time series with diverse domains and textual contexts obtained from an automated data generation pipeline, which helps address three main issues of ex…
Time-series forecasting finds broad applications in real-world scenarios. Due to the dynamic nature of time series data, it is important for time-series forecasting models to handle potential distribution shifts over time. In this paper, we initially identify two types of distribution shifts in time…
Time-series forecasting is an essential task with wide real-world applications across domains. While recent advances in deep learning have enabled time-series forecasting models with accurate predictions, there remains considerable debate over which architectures and design components, such as serie…
Large language models (LLMs), with demonstrated reasoning abilities across multiple domains, have been largely underexplored fortime-series reasoning (TsR), which is ubiquitous in the real world. In this work, wepropose TimerBed, the first comprehensivetestbed for evaluating LLMs’ TsR performance.Sp…
Decision-focused learning (DFL), which differentiates through the KKT conditions, has recently emerged as a powerful approach for predict-then-optimize problems. However, under probabilistic settings, DFL faces three major bottlenecks: model mismatch error, sample average approximation error, and gr
Effective epidemic forecasting is critical for public health strategies and efficient medical resource allocation, especially in the face of rapidly spreading infectious diseases. However, existing deep-learning methods often overlook the dynamic nature of epidemics and fail to account for the speci…
Many real-world datasets can be naturally represented as graphs, spanning a wide range of domains. However, the increasing complexity and size of graph datasets present significant challenges for analysis and computation. In response, graph reduction techniques have gained prominence for simplifying…
Time-series forecasting (TSF) finds broad applications in real-world scenarios. Prompting off-the-shelf Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrates strong zero-shot TSF capabilities while preserving computational efficiency. However, existing prompting methods oversimplify TSF as language next-token p…
Large pre-trained models have been vital in recent advancements in domains like language and vision, making model training for individual downstream tasks more efficient and provide superior performance. However, tackling time-series analysis tasks usually involves designing and training a separate…
Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have emerged as a promising deep learning framework for approximating numerical solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs). However, conventional PINNs, relying on multilayer perceptrons (MLP), neglect the crucial temporal dependencies inherent in pra…
Time series data are ubiquitous across a wide range of real-world domains. While real-world time series analysis (TSA) requires human experts to integrate numerical series data with multimodal domain-specific knowledge, most existing TSA models rely solely on numerical data, overlooking the signific…
Time-series forecasting (TSF) finds broad applications in real-world scenarios. Due to the dynamic nature of time-series data, it is crucial for TSF models to preserve out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization abilities, as training and test sets represent historical and future data respectively. In…
Diffusion-based graph generative models have recently obtained promising results for graph generation. However, existing diffusion-based graph generative models are mostly one-shot generative models that apply Gaussian diffusion in the dequantized adjacency matrix space. Such a strategy can suffer f…
Healthcare acquired infections (HAIs) (e.g., Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection) have complex transmission pathways, spreading not just via direct person-to-person contacts, but also via contaminated surfaces. Prior work in mathematical epidemiology has led to a class of models –…
We introduce EINNs, a framework crafted for epidemic forecasting that builds upon the theoretical grounds provided by mechanistic models as well as the data-driven expressibility afforded by AI models, and their capabilities to ingest heterogeneous information. Although neural forecasting models hav…
For real-time forecasting in domains like public health and macroeconomics, data collection is a non-trivial and demanding task. Often after being initially released, it undergoes several revisions later (maybe due to human or technical constraints) - as a result, it may take weeks until the data re…
Decision-focused learning (DFL) was recently proposed for stochastic optimization problems that involve unknown parameters. By integrating predictive modeling with an implicitly differentiable optimization layer, DFL has shown superior performance to the standard two-stage predict-then-optimize pipe…
The efficient detection of outbreaks and other cascading phenomena is a fundamental problem in a number of domains, including disease spread, social networks, and infrastructure networks. In such settings, monitoring and testing a small group of pre-selected nodes from the susceptible population (i.…
Forecasting influenza in a timely manner aids health organizations and policymakers in adequate preparation and decision making. However, effective influenza forecasting still remains a challenge despite increasing research interest. It is even more challenging amidst the COVID pandemic, when the in…
Accurate and trustworthy epidemic forecasting is an important problem for public health planning and disease mitigation. Most existing epidemic forecasting models disregard uncertainty quantification, resulting in mis-calibrated predictions. Recent works in deep neural models for uncertainty-aware t…