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Oleksandr Shchur

10 accepted papers

2026

Test-Time Efficient Pretrained Model Portfolios for Time Series Forecasting

ICLR 2026poster

Is bigger always better for time series foundation models? With the question in mind, we explore an alternative to training a single, large monolithic model: building a portfolio of smaller, pretrained forecasting models. By applying ensembling or model selection over these portfolios, we achieve co…

Cited by 0SourceScholar
2026

Understanding Transformers for Time Series: Rank Structure, Flow-of-ranks, and Compressibility

ICLR 2026poster

Transformers are widely used across data modalities, and yet the principles distilled from text models often transfer imperfectly. In this paper, we analyze Transformers through the lens of rank structure. Our focus is on the time series setting, where the structural properties of the data remarkabl…

Cited by 0SourcecodeScholar
2026

Understanding the Implicit Biases of Design Choices for Time Series Foundation Models

ICLR 2026poster

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are a potential class of powerful, general-purpose tools for forecasting and related temporal tasks, but their behavior is strongly shaped by subtle inductive biases in their design. Rather than developing a new model and claiming that it is better than existin…

Cited by 0SourceScholar
2025

ChronosX: Adapting Pretrained Time Series Models with Exogenous Variables

AISTATS 2025poster

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent a…

Cited by 0SourceScholar
2023

Add and Thin: Diffusion for Temporal Point Processes

NeurIPS 2023poster

Autoregressive neural networks within the temporal point process (TPP) framework have become the standard for modeling continuous-time event data. Even though these models can expressively capture event sequences in a one-step-ahead fashion, they are inherently limited for long-term forecasting appl…

Cited by 14SourcePDFScholar
2021

Detecting Anomalous Event Sequences with Temporal Point Processes

NeurIPS 2021poster

Automatically detecting anomalies in event data can provide substantial value in domains such as healthcare, DevOps, and information security. In this paper, we frame the problem of detecting anomalous continuous-time event sequences as out-of-distribution (OOD) detection for temporal point processe…

Cited by 18SourcePDFScholar
2021

Neural Temporal Point Processes: A Review

IJCAI 2021poster

Temporal point processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative models for continuous-time event sequences. Neural TPPs combine the fundamental ideas from point process literature with deep learning approaches, thus enabling construction of flexible and efficient models. The topic of neural TPPs has att…

Cited by 120SourcePDFScholar
2020

Fast and Flexible Temporal Point Processes with Triangular Maps

NeurIPS 2020oral

Temporal point process (TPP) models combined with recurrent neural networks provide a powerful framework for modeling continuous-time event data. While such models are flexible, they are inherently sequential and therefore cannot benefit from the parallelism of modern hardware. By exploiting the rec…

2018

NetGAN: Generating Graphs via Random Walks

ICML 2018oral

We propose NetGAN - the first implicit generative model for graphs able to mimic real-world networks. We pose the problem of graph generation as learning the distribution of biased random walks over the input graph. The proposed model is based on a stochastic neural network that generates discrete o…

Cited by 505SourcePDFScholar