8 accepted papers
Amortized Bayesian inference (ABI) with neural networks can solve probabilistic inverse problems orders of magnitude faster than classical methods. However, ABI is not yet sufficiently robust for widespread and safe application. When performing inference on observations outside the scope of the simu…
The general applicability and robustness of posterior inference algorithms is critical to widely used probabilistic programming languages such as Stan, PyMC, Pyro, and Turing.jl. When designing a new inference algorithm, whether it involves Monte Carlo sampling or variational approximation, the fund…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) is constantly in search of more expressive and efficient algorithms to accurately infer the parameters of complex simulation models. In line with this goal, we present consistency models for posterior estimation (CMPE), a new conditional sampler for SBI that inherits…
We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the marginal likelihood based on approximate representations of…
Anomaly detection methods identify examples that do not follow the expected behaviour, typically in an unsupervised fashion, by assigning real-valued anomaly scores to the examples based on various heuristics. These scores need to be transformed into actual predictions by thresholding so that the pr…
This work proposes “jointly amortized neural approximation” (JANA) of intractable likelihood functions and posterior densities arising in Bayesian surrogate modeling and simulation-based inference. We train three complementary networks in an end-to-end fashion: 1) a summary network to compress indiv…
Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed data of interest. These posterior model probabilities (PMPs) a…
Projection predictive inference is a decision theoretic Bayesian approach that decouples model estimation from decision making. Given a reference model previously built including all variables present in the data, projection predictive inference projects its posterior onto a constrained space of a s…