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Shota Yasui

8 accepted papers

2026

Modeling Covariate Transition for Efficient Estimation of Longitudinal Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments

ICML 2026poster

We present a regression-adjustment framework designed to estimate longitudinal treatment effects in randomized experiments under static regimes. Although regression-adjustment methods are useful for variance reduction in randomized experiments through the use of pre-treatment covariates, they usuall…

Cited by 0SourceScholar
2025

Beyond the Average: Distributional Causal Inference under Imperfect Compliance

NeurIPS 2025poster

We study the estimation of distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments with imperfect compliance. When participants do not adhere to their assigned treatments, we leverage treatment assignment as an instrumental variable to identify the local distributional treatment effect—the differ…

Cited by 0SourcecodeScholar
2025

On Efficient Estimation of Distributional Treatment Effects under Covariate-Adaptive Randomization

ICML 2025poster

This paper focuses on the estimation of distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments that use covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR). These include designs such as Efron's biased-coin design and stratified block randomization, where participants are first grouped into strata based on b…

2024

Estimating Distributional Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments: Machine Learning for Variance Reduction

ICML 2024poster

We propose a novel regression adjustment method designed for estimating distributional treatment effect parameters in randomized experiments. Randomized experiments have been extensively used to estimate treatment effects in various scientific fields. However, to gain deeper insights, it is essentia…

2022

Learning Causal Models from Conditional Moment Restrictions by Importance Weighting

ICLR 2022spotlight

We consider learning causal relationships under conditional moment restrictions. Unlike causal inference under unconditional moment restrictions, conditional moment restrictions pose serious challenges for causal inference. To address this issue, we propose a method that transforms conditional momen…

Cited by 9SourcePDFScholar
2021

The Adaptive Doubly Robust Estimator and a Paradox Concerning Logging Policy

NeurIPS 2021poster

The doubly robust (DR) estimator, which consists of two nuisance parameters, the conditional mean outcome and the logging policy (the probability of choosing an action), is crucial in causal inference. This paper proposes a DR estimator for dependent samples obtained from adaptive experiments. To ob…

Cited by 11SourcePDFScholar
2020

Counterfactual Cross-Validation: Stable Model Selection Procedure for Causal Inference Models

ICML 2020poster

We study the model selection problem in \emph{conditional average treatment effect} (CATE) prediction. Unlike previous works on this topic, we focus on preserving the rank order of the performance of candidate CATE predictors to enable accurate and stable model selection. To this end, we analyze the…

2020

Off-Policy Evaluation and Learning for External Validity under a Covariate Shift

NeurIPS 2020spotlight

We consider the evaluation and training of a new policy for the evaluation data by using the historical data obtained from a different policy. The goal of off-policy evaluation (OPE) is to estimate the expected reward of a new policy over the evaluation data, and that of off-policy learning (OPL) is…