5 accepted papers
Conformal prediction provides a powerful framework for constructing distribution-free prediction regions with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While extensively studied in univariate settings, its extension to multi-output problems presents additional challenges, including complex output dependenc…
A reliable estimate of the full conditional distribution of a multivariate response given a set of covariates is essential in many decision-making applications. However, misspecified or miscalibrated models can lead to poor approximations of the joint distribution, resulting in unreliable prediction…
We present a new method for generating confidence sets within the split conformal prediction framework. Our method performs a trainable transformation of any given conformity score to improve conditional coverage while ensuring exact marginal coverage. The transformation is based on an estimate of t…
Generating calibrated and sharp neural network predictive distributions for regression problems is essential for optimal decision-making in many real-world applications. To address the miscalibration issue of neural networks, various methods have been proposed to improve calibration, including post-…
Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the largest empirical study to date to assess the probabilistic ca…