Ying-Jieh Xia

Simulated Ignorance Fails: A Systematic Study of LLM Behaviors on Forecasting Problems Before Model Knowledge Cutoff

Evaluating LLM forecasting capabilities is constrained by a fundamental tension: prospective evaluation offers methodological rigor but prohibitive latency, while retrospective forecasting (RF)—evaluating on already-resolved events—faces rapidly shrinking clean evaluation data as SOTA models possess