AISTATS 2025poster0 citations

A Unified Evaluation Framework for Epistemic Predictions

Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal, Muhammad Mubashar, Kaizheng Wang, Fabio Cuzzolin

Abstract

Predictions of uncertainty-aware models are diverse, ranging from single point estimates (often averaged over prediction samples) to predictive distributions, to set-valued or credal-set representations. We propose a novel unified evaluation framework for uncertainty-aware classifiers, applicable to a wide range of model classes, which allows users to tailor the trade-off between accuracy and precision of predictions via a suitably designed performance metric. This makes possible the selection of the most suitable model for a particular real-world application as a function of the desired trade-off. Our experiments, concerning Bayesian, ensemble, evidential, deterministic, credal and belief function classifiers on the CIFAR-10, MNIST and CIFAR-100 datasets, show that the metric behaves as desired.

BibTeX
@inproceedings{
manchingal2025a,
title={A Unified Evaluation Framework for Epistemic Predictions},
author={Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal and Muhammad Mubashar and Kaizheng Wang and Fabio Cuzzolin},
booktitle={The 28th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics},
year={2025},
url={https://openreview.net/forum?id=kXC0Sdf8KN}
}
A Unified Evaluation Framework for Epistemic Predictions · AISTATS 2025