13 accepted papers
We study adaptive querying for learning user-dependent quantities of interest, such as responses to held-out items and psychometric indicators, within tight question budgets. Classical Bayesian design and computerized adaptive testing typically rely on restrictive parametric assumptions or expensive…
Deep ensembles (DE) have emerged as a powerful approach for quantifying predictive uncertainty and distinguishing its aleatoric and epistemic components, thereby enhancing model robustness and reliability. However, their high computational and memory costs during inference pose significant challenge
Credal predictors are epistemic-uncertainty-aware models that produce a convex set of probabilistic predictions. They provide a principled framework for quantifying predictive epistemic uncertainty (EU) and have been shown to improve model robustness across a range of settings. However, most state-o…
We consider the problem of estimating the effect function of a continuous treatment, which maps each treatment value to its average effect over the population. A central challenge in this setting is confounding: treatment assignment often depends on covariates, creating selection bias that makes dir…
We study a multi-factor block model for variable clustering and connect it to regularized subspace clustering through a distributionally robust version of nodewise regression. To solve the latter problem, we derive a convex relaxation, provide a data-driven approach for selecting the size of the rob…
Predictions of uncertainty-aware models are diverse, ranging from single point estimates (often averaged over prediction samples) to predictive distributions, to set-valued or credal-set representations. We propose a novel unified evaluation framework for uncertainty-aware classifiers, applicable to…
This paper presents an innovative approach, called credal wrapper, to formulating a credal set representation of model averaging for Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles (DEs), capable of improving uncertainty estimation in classification tasks. Given a finite collection of single pred…
Machine learning is increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains where erroneous predictions may lead to potentially catastrophic consequences, highlighting the need for learning systems to be aware of how confident they are in their own predictions: in other words, 'to know when they do not kno…
We investigate the use of large language models (LLMs) to simulate human responses to survey questions, and perform uncertainty quantification to gain reliable insights. Our approach converts imperfect, LLM-simulated responses into confidence sets for population parameters of human responses, addres…
This paper introduces an innovative approach to classification called Credal Deep Ensembles (CreDEs), namely, ensembles of novel Credal-Set Neural Networks (CreNets). CreNets are trained to predict a lower and an upper probability bound for each class, which, in turn, determine a convex set of proba…
We investigate model assessment and selection in a changing environment, by synthesizing datasets from both the current time period and historical epochs. To tackle unknown and potentially arbitrary temporal distribution shift, we develop an adaptive rolling window approach to estimate the generaliz…
This paper considers a canonical clustering problem where one receives unlabeled samples drawn from a balanced mixture of two elliptical distributions and aims for a classifier to estimate the labels. Many popular methods including PCA and k-means require individual components of the mixture to be s…
Recent years have seen a flurry of activities in designing provably efficient nonconvex optimization procedures for solving statistical estimation problems. For various problems like phase retrieval or low-rank matrix completion, state-of-the-art nonconvex procedures require proper regularization (e…