DDA: Distillation-Driven Acceleration of the Reverse Diffusion Process for Stochastic Multi-Ship Trajectory Prediction

Abstract

Modeling stochastic multi-ship trajectories is vital for maritime safety and interaction efficiency. Recent researches show that diffusion models excel in trajectory prediction, surpassing GANs and VAEs in generation quality, diversity and stability. However, their slow sampling speed remains a major limitation, as producing high-quality trajectories typically requires hundreds of denoising steps. We introduce DDA, a novel method that accelerates multi-ship trajectory generation by distilling the reverse diffusion process, progressively reducing sampling steps by half while minimizing quality loss. We use CVAE-based encoder to map multimodal inputs into state embeddings in the latent space, and use distillation diffusion in the latent space to more quickly and better represent multi-ship trajectories. The diffusion model uses Transformer-based core, and we incorporate SO(2) invariance and equivariance to enhance model representation. Validation on real-world AIS datasets shows that the student model retains high-quality trajectory generation while sampling speed is approximately 30 times faster.