15 accepted papers
Beginning with Witkowski et al. (2023), recent work on forecasting competitions has addressed incentive problems with the common winner-take-all mechanism. Frongillo et al. (2021) propose a competition mechanism based on Multiplicative Weights, an online learning algorithm. They show that their mech…
When agents trade in a Duality-based Cost Function prediction market, they collectively implement the learning algorithm Follow-The-Regularized-Leader [Abernethy et al., 2013]. We ask whether other learning algorithms could be used to inspire the design of prediction markets. By decomposing and modi…
In multiclass classification over $n$ outcomes, we typically optimize some surrogate loss $L: \mathbb{R}^d \times\mathcal{Y} \to \mathbb{R}$ assigning real-valued error to predictions in $\mathbb{R}^d$. In this paradigm, outcomes must be embedded into the reals with dimension $d \approx n$ in order…
We initiate the study of proper losses for evaluating generative models in the discrete setting. Unlike traditional proper losses, we treat both the generative model and the target distribution as black-boxes, only assuming ability to draw i.i.d. samples. We define a loss to be black-box proper if t…
Surrogate risk minimization is an ubiquitous paradigm in supervised machine learning, wherein a target problem is solved by minimizing a surrogate loss on a dataset. Surrogate regret bounds, also called excess risk bounds, are a common tool to prove generalization rates for surrogate risk minimizat…
The convex consistency dimension of a supervised learning task is the lowest prediction dimension $d$ such that there exists a convex surrogate $L : \mathbb{R}^d \times \mathcal Y \to \mathbb R$ that is consistent for the given task. We present a new tool based on property elicitation, $d$-flats,…
We formalize and study the natural approach of designing convex surrogate loss functions via embeddings for problems such as classification or ranking. In this approach, one embeds each of the finitely many predictions (e.g. classes) as a point in \reals^d, assigns the original loss values to these…
We study an online classification problem with partial feedback in which individuals arrive one at a time from a fixed but unknown distribution, and must be classified as positive or negative. Our algorithm only observes the true label of an individual if they are given a positive classification. Th…
Given a data set of $(x,y)$ pairs, a common learning task is to fit a model predicting $y$ (a label or dependent variable) conditioned on $x$. This paper considers the similar but much less-understood problem of modeling “higher-order” statistics of $y$’s distribution conditioned on $x$. Such statis…
In this work we study loss functions for learning and evaluating probability distributions over large discrete domains. Unlike classification or regression where a wide variety of loss functions are used, in the distribution learning and density estimation literature, very few losses outside the do…
Bandit learning is characterized by the tension between long-term exploration and short-term exploitation. However, as has recently been noted, in settings in which the choices of the learning algorithm correspond to important decisions about individual people (such as criminal recidivism predictio…
Prior work has investigated variations of prediction markets that preserve participants' (differential) privacy, which formed the basis of useful mechanisms for purchasing data for machine learning objectives. Such markets required potentially unlimited financial subsidy, however, making them impr…
There are now several large scale deployments of differential privacy used to collect statistical information about users. However, these deployments periodically recollect the data and recompute the statistics using algorithms designed for a single use. As a result, these systems do not provide mea…
Traditional approaches to differential privacy assume a fixed privacy requirement ε for a computation, and attempt to maximize the accuracy of the computation subject to the privacy constraint. As differential privacy is increasingly deployed in practical settings, it may often be that there is inst…
We propose a mechanism for purchasing information from a sequence of participants.The participants may simply hold data points they wish to sell, or may have more sophisticated information; either way, they are incentivized to participate as long as they believe their data points are representative…