28 accepted papers
We propose causal preference elicitation, a Bayesian framework for expert-in-the-loop causal discovery that actively queries local edge relations to concentrate a posterior over directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). From any black-box observational posterior, we model noisy expert judgments with a three-w…
We present a general strategy for turning generative models into candidate solution samplers for batch Bayesian optimization (BO). The use of generative models for BO enables: large batch scaling as generative sampling, optimization of non-continuous design spaces, and high-dimensional and combinato…
Recent years have seen a surge in data-driven surrogates for dynamical systems that can be orders of magnitude faster than numerical solvers. However, many machine learning-based models such as neural operators exhibit spectral bias, attenuating high-frequency components that often encode small-scal…
We introduce active generation of Pareto sets (A-GPS), a new framework for online discrete black-box multi-objective optimization (MOO). A-GPS learns a generative model of the Pareto set that supports a-posteriori conditioning on user preferences. The method employs a class probability estimator (CP…
Directed acyclic graph (DAG) learning is a central task in structure discovery and causal inference. Although the field has witnessed remarkable advances over the past few years, it remains statistically and computationally challenging to learn a single (point estimate) DAG from data, let alone prov…
Neural Processes (NPs) are deep probabilistic models that represent stochastic processes by conditioning their prior distributions on a set of context points. Despite their advantages in uncertainty estimation for complex distributions, NPs enforce parameterization coupling between the conditional…
We propose an extension of Thompson sampling to optimization problems over function spaces where the objective is a known functional of an unknown operator's output. We assume that queries to the operator (such as running a high-fidelity simulator or physical experiment) are costly, while functional…
We introduce a novel one-parameter variational objective that lower bounds the data evidence and enables the estimation of approximate fractional posteriors. We extend this framework to hierarchical construction and Bayes posteriors, offering a versatile tool for probabilistic modelling. We demonstr…
We develop VSD, a method for conditioning a generative model of discrete, combinatorial designs on a rare desired class by efficiently evaluating a black-box (e.g. experiment, simulation) in a batch sequential manner. We call this task active generation; we formalize active generation's requirements…
The process of calibrating computer models of natural phenomena is essential for applications in the physical sciences, where plenty of domain knowledge can be embedded into simulations and then calibrated against real observations. Current machine learning approaches, however, mostly rely on rerunn…
Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from observational data remains a significant challenge in machine learning. Most research in this area concentrates on learning a single DAG for the entire population. This paper considers an alternative setting where the graph structure va…
Causal discovery in the presence of missing data introduces a chicken-and-egg dilemma. While the goal is to recover the true causal structure, robust imputation requires considering the dependencies or, preferably, causal relations among variables. Merely filling in missing values with existing impu…
Estimating the parameters of a probabilistic directed graphical model from incomplete data is a long-standing challenge. This is because, in the presence of latent variables, both the likelihood function and posterior distribution are intractable without assumptions about structural dependencies or…
Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is computationally and statistically challenging due to the large number…
We consider the Bayesian optimal filtering problem: i.e. estimating some conditional statistics of a latent time-series signal from an observation sequence. Classical approaches often rely on the use of assumed or estimated transition and observation models. Instead, we formulate a generic recurrent…
We study the problem of imputing missing values in a dataset, which has important applications in many domains. The key to missing value imputation is to capture the data distribution with incomplete samples and impute the missing values accordingly. In this paper, by leveraging the fact that any tw…
Advances in differentiable numerical integrators have enabled the use of gradient descent techniques to learn ordinary differential equations (ODEs), where a flexible function approximator (often a neural network) is used to estimate the system dynamics, given as a time derivative. However, these in…
Bayesian approaches developed to solve the optimal design of sequential experiments are mathematically elegant but computationally challenging. Recently, techniques using amortization have been proposed to make these Bayesian approaches practical, by training a parameterized policy that proposes des…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is among the most effective and widely-used blackbox optimization methods. BO proposes solutions according to an explore-exploit trade-off criterion encoded in an acquisition function, many of which are computed from the posterior predictive of a probabilistic surrogate mo…
We develop a novel method for carrying out model selection for Bayesian autoencoders (BAEs) by means of prior hyper-parameter optimization. Inspired by the common practice of type-II maximum likelihood optimization and its equivalence to Kullback-Leibler divergence minimization, we propose to optimi…
Making predictions and quantifying their uncertainty when the input data is sequential is a fundamental learning challenge, recently attracting increasing attention. We develop SigGPDE, a new scalable sparse variational inference framework for Gaussian Processes (GPs) on sequential data. Our contrib…
Approximate inference techniques are the cornerstone of probabilistic methods based on Gaussian process priors. Despite this, most work approximately optimizes standard divergence measures such as the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, which lack the basic desiderata for the task at hand, while chief…
We propose a framework that lifts the capabilities of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) to scenarios where no input graph is given and increases their robustness to adversarial attacks. We formulate a joint probabilistic model that considers a prior distribution over graphs along with a GCN-based…
The wide adoption of Convolutional Neural Networks CNNs in applications where decision-making under uncertainty is fundamental, has brought a great deal of attention to the ability of these models to accurately quantify the uncertainty in their predictions. Previous work on combining CNNs with Gauss…
We generalize the log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) framework to model multiple correlated point data jointly. The observations are treated as realizations of multiple LGCPs, whose log intensities are given by linear combinations of latent functions drawn from Gaussian process priors. The combination…
We propose a scalable framework for inference in a continuous sigmoidal Cox process that assumes the corresponding intensity function is given by a Gaussian process (GP) prior transformed with a scaled logistic sigmoid function. We present a tractable representation of the likelihood through augme…
The composition of multiple Gaussian Processes as a Deep Gaussian Process DGP enables a deep probabilistic nonparametric approach to flexibly tackle complex machine learning problems with sound quantification of uncertainty. Existing inference approaches for DGP models have limited scalability and a…
We propose a sparse method for scalable automated variational inference (AVI) in a large class of models with Gaussian process (GP) priors, multiple latent functions, multiple outputs and non-linear likelihoods. Our approach maintains the statistical efficiency property of the original AVI method, r…