8 accepted papers
While LLMs have seen substantial improvement in reasoning capabilities, they also sometimes overthink, generating unnecessary reasoning steps, particularly under uncertainty, given ill-posed or ambiguous queries. We introduce statistically principled early stopping methods that monitor uncertainty s…
Top-$k$ decoding is a widely used method for sampling from LLMs: at each token, only the largest $k$ next-token-probabilities are kept, and the next token is sampled after re-normalizing them to sum to unity. Top-$k$ and other sampling methods are motivated by the intuition that true next-token dist…
We give an efficient algorithm for producing multi-dimensional forecasts in an online adversarial environment that have low bias subject to any polynomial number of conditioning events, that can depend both on external context and on our predictions themselves. We demonstrate the use of this algorit…
We study the design of adaptive, sequential experiments for unbiased average treatment effect (ATE) estimation in the design-based potential outcomes setting. Our goal is to develop adaptive designs offering *sublinear Neyman regret*, meaning their efficiency must approach that of the hindsight-opti…
We develop fast distribution-free conformal prediction algorithms for obtaining multivalid coverage on exchangeable data in the batch setting. Multivalid coverage guarantees are stronger than marginal coverage guarantees in two ways: (1) They hold even conditional on group membership---that is, the…
We make a connection between multicalibration and property elicitation and show that (under mild technical conditions) it is possible to produce a multicalibrated predictor for a continuous scalar property $\Gamma$ if and only if $\Gamma$ is *elicitable*. On the negative side, we show that for non-e…
We introduce a simple but general online learning framework in which a learner plays against an adversary in a vector-valued game that changes every round. Even though the learner's objective is not convex-concave (and so the minimax theorem does not apply), we give a simple algorithm that can compe…
We give a simple, generic conformal prediction method for sequential prediction that achieves target empirical coverage guarantees on adversarial data. It is computationally lightweight --- comparable to split conformal prediction --- but does not require having a held-out validation set, and so all…